November 15, 2022. According to an estimate made by the United Nations, this is the date when the Earth will reach the population limit of 8 billion.
The world population will have a total population of 8.5 billion in 2030; 9.7 billion in 2050; and 10.4 billion in 2100.
Having the fifth largest population in the world in 1990, Brazil comes in as the seventh most populous country in 2022: 215 million of us. And we will continue to grow throughout this century.
The UN predicts that by 2050 Brazil will have a population of 231 million and will remain the seventh most populous country in the world, though there will be differences between countries going forward (see list at bottom of this article).
The data is part of the official UN estimate made in the World Population Prospects 2022 report released this Monday (11/7). This is the 27th edition of the study.
Another related fact is that India should overtake China as the most populous country on the planet next year – both currently have a population of around 1.4 billion. According to the UN, China has about 14 million more inhabitants than India and could see its population decline as early as next year.
One of the main factors in population growth in recent years is that we live longer. Global life expectancy has been increasing in recent years. The world’s life expectancy in 2019 was 72.8 years – an increase of almost nine years compared to 1990. According to the UN, this expectation will continue to rise and is expected to reach 77.2 years in 2050.
Despite population growth, the fertility rate (the average number of children each woman has) is declining worldwide. She gave birth to five babies in 1950, compared to an average of 2.3 babies per woman in 2021. The world fertility rate is expected to decline further and reach 2.1 by 2050.
The world population continues to increase, but at a slower pace than in the past. In 2020, population growth fell below 1% for the first time since 1950. The UN report states that the world population will reach a peak of 10.4 billion in 2080 and this level will remain stable until 2100, then it will remain stable until 2100. autumn.
Some parts of the planet, such as Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, North America, East and Southeast Asia, and Central and South Asia, are expected to reach their maximum population size before 2100, and have already begun the process of population decline before that date. turn of the century.
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The UN attributes much of the population growth projected for 2050 – two-thirds – to the current age structure of the population considered young. According to the report, even if governments implemented programs to reduce the fertility rate, the population would continue to increase due to this inherited structure from the past.
Below are four UN projections on population changes this century:
1. More elderly in the world; older men
The elderly will form an increasing share of societies. Currently, people over 65 represent 10% of the population. By 2050, this rate will increase to 16%. By 2050, the number of seniors aged 65 and over will be twice that of children under the age of five.
According to the UN, this is due to a combination of rising life expectancy and falling fertility rates.
The proportion of women among the elderly should be reduced. Women have a longer life expectancy than men and today represent 55.7% of the population over 65. However, by 2050, this rate should decrease to 54.5 percent.
According to the UN report, women have a higher life expectancy than men. Women live, on average, 5.4 years longer than men. In Latin America, the difference is even greater: women live 7 years longer than men – the largest recorded gender gap in the world.
In the report, the UN warns countries to adapt their retirement and public health programs to deal with this new scenario with more older people.
In parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa, the UN notes that the working-age population (25-64) is still growing, giving these countries the opportunity to take advantage of the so-called “demographic bonus.” is growing and the number of children and elderly people whose livelihood depends on the worker or the state is decreasing. Demographers see this as a crucial moment to make a “developmental leap.”
Such is the case in Brazil – the working-age population is highest in historical series, and the dependency ratio of children and the elderly is lowest.
But the UN warns that investment in education and health is needed to optimize these gains.
2. Immigration is the engine of population growth in rich countries
In rich countries, immigration has a larger share in population growth than births.
Between 2000 and 2020, immigration to these rich countries increased the population by 80.5 million. The number of new births – excluding deaths – makes up 66.5 million.
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Migration will continue to be the engine of population growth in high-income countries in the coming years.
Already in some countries around the world, there will be a population decline of 1 percent or more between 2022 and 2050, precisely because of immigration. This is because of low birth rates and, in some cases, large numbers of people leaving these nations. This is the case for Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine.
3. Problems for the poorest
According to the United Nations, rapid population growth will be one of the challenges for the sustainable development of societies, especially in the education sector and in poorer countries. The fastest population growth will occur in the world’s 46 least developed countries. According to the UN, many of these countries are also the most vulnerable to global warming.
Asia is currently the world’s most populous continent – but most of the future population growth will come from sub-Saharan Africa. More than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Tanzania.
4. effects of covid-19
The Covid pandemic was the main factor that reduced life expectancy in the world from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71 years in 2021 in recent years.
In Latin America, during the same period, life expectancy decreased by three years. In countries like Bolivia, Botswana, Lebanon, Mexico, Oman and Russia, life expectancy decreased by four years between 2019 and 2021.
Another effect of Kovid on demographics is the restriction of mobility in the world during this period, making migration movements difficult. But the UN said it was difficult to estimate what the impact was on population growth.
5. Most populous in the past, present and future
The UN report lists the world’s most populous countries in 1990 and 2022 and a projection for 2050.
The most populated countries in the world in 1990:
- China: 1.144 billion people
- India: 861 million
- USA: 246 million
- Indonesia: 181 million
- Brazil: 149 million
- Russia: 148 million
- Japan: 123 million
- Pakistan: 114 million
- Bangladesh: 106 million
- Nigeria: 94 million
The most populated countries in the world in 2022:
- China: 1.426 billion
- India: 1.412 billion
- USA: 337 million
- Indonesia: 275 million
- Pakistan: 234 million
- Nigeria: 216 million
- Brazil: 215 million
- Bangladesh: 170 million
- Russia: 145 million
- Mexico: 127 million
The most populated countries in the world in 2050 (projection):
- India: 1.668 billion
- China: 1.317 billion
- USA: 375 million
- Nigeria: 375 million
- Pakistan: 366 million
- Indonesia: 317 million
- Brazil: 231 million
- Congo: 215 million
- Ethiopia: 213 million
- Bangladesh: 204 million
– Text published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-62067710.
source: Noticias
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