Latin America’s left engagement will have a short honeymoon

BOGOTA – Inside kilosa politician with tattooed arms and former student activist won the presidency by promising to oversee the deeper transformation which has been raised in Chilean society for decades, widening the social safety net and shifting the tax burden to the wealthy.

In Peruthe son of a poor farmer was pushed to victory by promising to put families in need first, feed the hungry and correct wrongs. old disparities in access to health and education.

In Colombiaa veteran senator and former guerrilla was elected the country’s first left-wing president, vowing to defend the rights of indigenous, black and poor Colombians, while building an economy that works for all.

“A new story for Colombia, for Latin America, for the world,” he said in his victory speech, amid thunderous applause.

After years of tilting to the right, Latin America is darting to the left, a watershed moment that began in 2018 with the election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico and could culminate in the victory, by the end of the year, of a leftist candidate a Brazilwith which the six largest economies in the region would be run by political leaders elected from their left-wing platforms.

A combination of forces brought this new group to power; one such factor is the animosity against traditional politicians that has been fueled by outrage over the chronic poverty and inequality, conditions that were only exacerbated by the pandemic and aggravated frustration among voters who projected their outrage against establishment political candidates.

But just as the new leaders take office, their election promises have stumbled upon a sad reality, marked by a European war that skyrocketed the cost of everyday goods – from fuel to food – worsening the living conditions of already suffering voters and diminishing much of the goodwill enjoyed by presidents.

The Chilean president, Gabriele Boric; the Peruvian president, Pietro castle Y Gustavo PetroColombia’s president-elect, are some of those leaders who have achieved victory with the promise of helping the poor and marginalized, but face enormous challenges in trying to achieve the high expectations of voters.

Unlike today, the last significant wave of the left in Latin America, during the first decade of the millennium, was fueled by a commodity boom that allowed leaders to expand social programs and move an extraordinary number of people into the classroom. media, raising the expectations of millions of families.

Now there is the middle class elusive, And instead of a boom, governments face fiscal tensions from the pandemic, runaway inflation fueled by war in Ukraine, increased migration and the increasingly dire economic and social consequences of climate change.

In Argentinawhere the left Alberto Fernandez Rising to power in late 2019 under a right-wing president, protesters took to the streets amid rising prices.

More massive protests have recently erupted Ecuadorthreatening the government of William Lasso, one of the few right-wing presidents to have been elected in the region.

“I don’t want to be apocalyptic about it,” said Cynthia Arnson, a researcher at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

“But, when you look at this, it sometimes feels like a Perfect storm for the number of things that impact the region at the same time ”.

The rise of social media, which has the potential to fuel discontent and generate large protest movements, including in Chile and Colombia, has shown people the power of the streets.

Starting in August, when Petro replaces his conservative predecessor, five of the region’s six largest economies will be run by leaders who have campaigned on the left.

The sixth, Brazil, could also swing left in the October national elections.

Polls show that the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvaa fierce leftist, has a wide advantage over the current right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro.

The new leaders in Colombia and Chile are much more socially progressive than the left of the past, and are calling for a change in the use of fossil fuels and defender of the right a abortion at a time when the US Supreme Court is moving that country in the opposite direction.

But overall, this group is extremely heterogeneous, different in everything from economic policies to their commitments to democratic principles.

For example, Petro and Boric promised to expand social programs for the poor, while López Obrador focused on austerity, it is cutting public spending.

What binds these leaders, however, are the promises of radical change while, in many cases, they will face difficult and growing challenges.

In Chile, at the end of last year, he beat Boric José Antonio Kastright-wing politician linked to the Chilean dictator, Augusto Pinochetpromising to get rid of the neoliberal economic policies of the past.

But just months after his victory, with an inexperienced cabinet, a divided Congress, rising consumer prices and unrest in the south, Boric’s approval ratings They collapsed.

This month, 90 percent of respondents told Cadem, a polling company, that they believed the country was stagnant or regressive.

Like many countries in the region, Chile’s annual inflation rate is the highest in more than a generation, at 11.5%, creating a cost-of-living crisis.

In southern Chile, the scene of a land struggle between the state and the mapuchethe largest indigenous group in the country, the conflict has entered its deadliest phase in 20 years, prompting Boric to revoke one of his election promises and order the redeployment of troops in that zone.

Catalina Becerra, 37, a human resources manager from Antofagasta, northern Chile, said she “like many people of my generation” voted for Boric because Kast “didn’t represent her in the slightest.”

“But I wasn’t convinced of what I could do for the country,” Becerra added.

“He didn’t achieve what he said he would do.”

In September the Chileans will vote for a Constitution remarkably progressive which enshrines gender equality, environmental protection and indigenous rights and intends to replace the Magna Carta of the Pinochet era.

The president tied his success to that referendum, putting him in a precarious position should that proposal be rejected, a possibility that polls show as the most likely outcome for now.

In neighboring Peru, Castillo came out of virtual anonymity last year to beat Keiko Fujimori, a right-wing politician whose father, former president Alberto Fujimori, it ruled with an iron fist and introduced neoliberal policies similar to those rejected by Chilean voters.

While some Peruvians supported Castillo as a way to express their rejection of Fujimori, the current president also represented high hopes for many people, especially poor and rural voters.

As a candidate, Castillo has promised to empower farmers with more subsidies, access to credit, and technical assistance.

But today he can barely survive politically.

He ruled erratically, split between his far-left party and the far-right opposition, reflecting the controversial politics that helped him win the presidency.

Castillo, whose approval rating has dropped to 19 percent, according to the Institute of Peruvian Studies, is now subject to five tax investigationshe has already faced two impeachment attempts and has appointed seven interior ministers.

The land reform he promised has not yet translated into concrete policies.

Instead, hikes in food, fuel and fertilizer prices are hitting its voter base the hardest.

Farmers are facing one of the worst crises in decades, facing the largest annual planting season without extensive access to synthetic fertilizers, most of which usually come from Russia but are hard to find due to global supply disruptions. related to war.

Eduardo Zegarra, a researcher at GRADE, a research institute, described the situation as “Without precedents“.

“I see this will unfold dramatically this year and will likely lead to enormous instability,” he said.

In a poor neighborhood on a hill in Lima, the capital, many parents skip meals so their children have more to eat.

“We voted for Castillo because we thought his government would be different,” said Ruth Canchari, 29, a housewife and mother of three.

“But he’s not taking action.”

In Colombia, Petro will assume power while facing many of the same difficulties.

The poverty has increased —40 percent of households now live on less than $ 100 a month, less than half the monthly minimum wage — while inflation has hit nearly 10 percent.

However, despite widespread financial anxiety, Petro’s actions as he prepares to take office appear to have gained him some support.

He made repeated calls for national consensus, met his greatest political enemy, the former right-wing president Alvaro Uribeand appointed a respected and relatively conservative finance minister e educated at Yale.

The measures could allow Petro to govern more successfully than, say, Boric, said Daniel García-Peña, a political scientist, and have calmed some fears about how he will revive the country’s economy.

But considering the short honeymoon that other leaders have had, Petro will have very little time to start improving living conditions.

“Petro has to hand over to his constituents,” said Hernán Morantes, a Petro supporter and 30-year environmental activist.

“Social movements must be very active so that when the government does not comply, or does not want to comply, we are active.”

Julie Turkewitz reported from Bogotá, Colombia, Mitra Taj from Lima, Peru, and John Bartlett from Santiago, Chile. Genevieve Glatsky contributed to this report from Bogotá.

Julie Turkewitz is the head of the Andes office, which covers Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Suriname and Guyana. Before moving to South America, she was a correspondent for national affairs and covered the western United States. @julieturkewitz Julie Turkewitz reported from Bogotá, Colombia, Mitra Taj from Lima, Peru, and John Bartlett from Santiago, Chile. Genevieve Glatsky contributed to this report from Bogotá.

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