In 1991, Nancy Pelosi, elected to the US House of Representatives four years earlier, was on an official visit to China. During this perfectly supervised trip, she decides, along with two other American elected officials, to come and do her bit in the diplomatic machinery. While the small group is near Tiananmen Square, where student protests were bloodily repressed two years earlier, the three US representatives isolate themselves and unfurl a banner “to those who died for democracy in China”.
Thirty-one years later, having become president of the House of Representatives, the Californian has not lost her reticence towards the Middle Kingdom. Ultimate Weapon Feat? Her arrival in Taiwan on Tuesday for an official visit, despite the unclear international status of this territory claimed by China.
On the Beijing side, this visit by the third figure of federal power in Washington ended with insults and threats. Even “specific military responses” were promised. What would provoke a Chinese operation in Taiwan or, even more serious, a military confrontation between Beijing and Washington?
The reconquest, Xi Jinping’s priority objective
To understand the ins and outs of this emerging crisis, we must first measure what Taiwan represents to mainland China. Since 1949, with the rise to power of the communists in Beijing and the flight to Taiwan of the Chinese nationalist government, the two territories have been governed separately. But in more than 70 years, mainland China has never made a secret of its intentions to unite them into a single state, by force if necessary.
“The reconquest of Taiwan is part of the historical mission of the Chinese Communist Party,” explains Yannick Mireur, a specialist in the United States, on BFMTV.
These invasion threats have intensified in recent years, with Xi Jinping’s rise to the helm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The current head of state has been clearer than any of his predecessors in his desire to recover Taiwan. Last June, his defense minister told a conference in Singapore that Beijing “will not hesitate to fight” for the reconquest.
And for the CCP 100 last year, Xi made it clear that the reunification of the two territories was his party’s historic mission. The increasing incursions of Chinese aircraft into the Taiwanese air defense zone are proof of this. 969 were registered in 2021 according to Agence France-Presse. This year more than 600 have already been identified.
the escalation of words
However, the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, who met on the night of Monday to Tuesday with President Tsai Ing-wen, a supporter of her island’s independence, distorts the story put forward by Beijing. the speaker, highest US dignitary to visit the island since 1997, comes to give legitimacy and global visibility to Taiwanese leaders. And this while the United States continues to officially recognize the Chinese doctrine that Beijing and Taipei constitute the same state.
Chinese leaders are feverish, fearing that Washington will gradually abandon this principle and come to recognize Taiwan’s independence. “Those who offend China will be punished,” a Chinese minister said on Tuesday.
After mentioning a possible attack on Pelosi’s plane en route to Taiwan, Hu Xijin, the popular CCP-affiliated media columnist globaltimesHe spoke on Twitter of an escalation of the conflict.
“Let her go to Taiwan. But let her pray before she goes: that her return will be safe and that she will not be seen in history as a sinner responsible for an escalation that turned military friction into a full-scale war across the Taiwan Strait.” , said.
Given the threats to the speaker of its House of Representatives, Washington asked the Pentagon and its Indo-Pacific command based in Hawaii to guarantee the safety of Nancy Pelosi, according to the New York Times, and the US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan is currently deployed to the region. The White House is also being particularly tight-lipped about Nancy Pelosi’s visit.
A difficult indoor climate in Beijing
The verbal escalation between Beijing and Washington, as well as the increased risk of invasion, is explained by the delicate situation in which China finds itself. The Chinese economic “miracle” is wearing thin and the population is tired after two years of drastic management of the Covid-19 epidemic. Likewise, it is necessary for Xi Jinping to be firm and play with the nationalist accents of his population. In October the congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held, which will have to renew his mandate for the third time – a record.
But for many experts, despite the provocation in the eyes of Beijing represented by the visit of Nancy Pelosi, a military invasion of Taiwan, or even a direct confrontation between Beijing and Washington – the United States has explained on several occasions that it would not hesitate to come to Taipei’s aid in the event of an attack – is unlikely at the moment.
“I don’t think the Chinese army is prepared to go into direct confrontation with Taiwan or the United States,” geopolitical researcher Valérie Niquet explained on BFMTV on Tuesday.
A statement confirmed by William Overholt, a Harvard researcher quoted by the New York Times. “China absolutely wants to take Taiwan back. But that doesn’t mean it’s ready for a bloody war and the end of the Chinese economic miracle either,” she explains.
The mighty Chinese army
Because the consequences of a direct confrontation between Beijing and Washington would be dramatic for China, both in human and economic terms. An invasion of Taiwan, a country supported behind the scenes by many Western capitals, would certainly isolate Beijing from the international stage and expose it to drastic economic sanctions. But the Russian example in the Ukraine demonstrates that rational considerations sometimes do not enter into war planning.
Also be careful not to underestimate the military capabilities of China, which has actively developed its weapons industry in recent years. Beijing now has the largest fleet in the world. Stanford researcher Oriana Skylar Mastro explains in an analysis published in the New York Times that the Beijing military can now target and neutralize US aircraft carriers using powerful missiles.
“One of the possible options would be for China to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, while Beijing has remained fairly neutral in this regard for the moment,” argues Zhaohan Shen, an expert in military security in the Asia-Asia region. Peaceful. . Moscow has also multiplied the declarations condemning the visit of Nancy Pelosi.
For the moment, the Chinese response is limited to the multiplication of aerial exercises in the Taiwan Strait and verbal threats. Six areas around the island are inaccessible and Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said 20 Chinese military planes violated its airspace.
“Many things can happen. But I would like to be nuanced. It will not start World War III, there will be no direct confrontation. But it brings us closer to that,” Zhaohan Shen concluded.
Source: BFM TV
