Russian President Vladimir Putin with General Alexander Dvornikov in 2017. Photo by Reuters
With the Russian army withdrawing from outside kyiv and facing condemnation for brutal tactics, a brutal political crackdown on Russia and the economy battered by Western sanctions, opponents and allies are wondering if the President Vladimir Putin will be able to stay in power.
The answer: right now, but maybe not forever.
After 22 years in power, Putin has built a strong phalanx of loyalists around himboth in the army and in the Russian secret services.
It also has significant support for the Russians, immersed in propaganda in favor of Putin thanks to its almost total control over television and other mass media. Even today, many Russians believe that Putin’s leadership has brought more prestige, prosperity and stability to the country in two decades.
In St. Petersburg, dolls with a picture of Putin. Photo EFE
the unpredictable
This building of protection, the vast wealth that Putin controls, and the lack of a significant history of government coups in Russia means that any of the obvious ways of getting rid of him is almost unthinkable right now.
however, all heads of state are inherently vulnerable to unforeseen circumstances, especially if they ignore the society around them. A good example happened to Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.
“For God’s sake, this man cannot stay in power,” President Joe Biden said of Putin last month in Poland.
An employee removed an anti-war graffiti in St. Louis. Petersburg. Photo by AP
Until 2036
Putin, 69, is seeking re -election in 2024, and changes to Russia’s Constitution possibly allow him to rule until 2036. But the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny is just a sign that Putin is not confident enough in his fame to put himself to a truly democratic test.
Tens of thousands of wealthy citizens, intellectuals and political critics have left Russia instead of remaining under the tight control imposed by Putin, who has found refuge in Istanbul or Western cities. This brain drain will definitely hurt Russia in the future. But at the moment, his departure removes a possible connection of the opposition to society.
Of course, history is unpredictable. Some expect rapid dissolution of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
If Russia’s casualties in Ukraine are as high as reported (15,000 or more died and three times as many were injured six weeks after the invasion), those results would begin to penetrate society despite the official censorship.
AP Agency
Source: Clarin