Since re-democratisation, Minas Gerais has functioned as a kind of thermometer for the presidential election and also a pendulum case. Whoever wins there takes the post of President. In this regard, the Genial/Quaest poll released this Friday (12) should be read, which shows Lula (42%) ahead of Bolsonaro (33%) in the state, but with a significant decrease in his advantage.
The difference between the two, which was 25 points in March, decreased to 18 in July and 9 in August. Former governor Ciro Gomes scored 6% and Senator Simone Tebet scored 1%. The margin of error is two points. The data point to a deepening of polarization in the presidential race in Minas Gerais.
Amazonas also determined the winner, but Minas has a more similar rate to the national vote and is demographically relevant, the second-largest electoral college after São Paulo. The story of this election would have been different if, for example, the state had handed over a substantial majority of its votes to its former governor, Aécio Neves (PSDB) in 2014.
At the same time, the diversity of its 853 municipalities makes it a social and economic example of Brazil and, consequently, a portrait of electoral behavior. Passing from Vale do Jequitinhonha through Vale do Aço, Grande BH, Sul de Minas and Triângulo Mineiro, there are regions with similar characteristics, drier and wetter, poor and rich, urban and rural, industrialized and focused on agribusiness and family farming . macro regions of the country.
And what does this thermometer indicate, according to Quaest? Lula’s advantage among those earning up to two minimum wages, the poorest in the survey sample, has now increased to 28 points (51% to 23%), up from 47 points in March, where Lula was 59% and Bolsonaro 12%. ). The PT also remains a consistent distance from the current president among the beneficiaries of Auxílio Brasil (53% to 25%), although the difference was already 60% to 16% in July.
Since the release of R$600 from Auxílio Brasil just started being paid out this Tuesday (9), Bolsonaro’s popularity among this age group may be due to the expectation that an additional R$200 will be paid in addition to the coupon. . Gas and other coupons for the Purchase of Votes guaranteed by the PEC during the election period.
Likewise, the gap between those not receiving benefits has narrowed, as the current president has expanded his leadership among those who receive more than five salaries a month.
Minas sometimes votes more with candidates on the left, sometimes more on the right
This makes putting platforms together to win the hearts and minds of miners one of the main challenges of the pre-candidates for Palácio do Planalto. It was important for Fernando Collor de Mello to have Itamar Franco from Minas Gerais on the ticket, as was Lula with the help of José Alencar of Minas Gerais.
In this election, Lula (PT) allied with former mayor Alexandre Kalil (PSD), whose main rival was the governor Romeu Zema (Novo).
Having an administration in line with Bolsonaro’s, 68% of the presidential electorate favored Zema, citing his party’s own candidate for Palácio do Planalto (Luiz Felipe), citing him for the election. d’ Village). In fact, he wanted to remain the custodian of the votes of both parties. This way Bolsonaro will have a platform with Senator Carlos Viana (PL).
Today, the current governor scores 46%, Kalil 24% and Viana 6%. But given the national support of each candidate, Lula and Kalil drop to 33 percent, Luiz Felipe d’Avila and Zema to 23 percent, and Bolsonaro and Viana to 19 percent, according to Quaest. Depending on what has happened in the national polarization, Zema may have chosen a risky strategy.
Will the model of Minas Gerais as the thermometer of the national campaign be repeated in October this year? In politics, the trend is not destiny.
A situation similar to that of Minas Gerais was that of Ohio, the pendulum state for the presidential election in the United States, sometimes pointing one side and sometimes the other. Whoever leads the state from 1964 to 2016 wins the White House. The folklore continued until 2020, when Joe Biden lost to Donald Trump there but consistently won the national election.
Below is a rounded version of valid votes nationally and in Minas Gerais over the past 33 years:
1989: Collor vs. Lula
Considering the national results in 1989, Fernando Collor de Mello was elected with 53% of the valid votes and Lula with 47%. In Minas Gerais, Collor had a 55% to 44% odds of winning in the second round.
1994: FHC – Lula
Considering the national results in 1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected with 55% of the valid votes and 40% of Lula’s. In Minas Gerais, the FHC took a 65% to 22% win in the first round.
1998: FHC – Lula
Considering the national results in 1998, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected with 53% of the valid votes and 32% of Lula’s. In Minas Gerais, the FHC took a 56% to 28% win in the first round.
2002: Lula vs Serra
Considering the national results in 2002, Lula was elected with 61% of the valid votes and 39% over José Serra. In Minas Gerais, Lula won in the second round with 66% to 33% of the vote.
2006: Lula vs. Alckmin
Considering the national results in 2006, Lula was elected with 61% of the valid votes and 39% over Geraldo Alckmin. In Minas Gerais, Lula won between 65% and 35% in the second round.
2010: Dilma vs. Serra
Looking at the national results in 2010, Dilma Rousseff was elected with 56% of the valid votes and José Serra with 44%. In Minas Gerais, Dilma won in the second round with 58% to 42% of the vote.
2014: Dilma vs Aécio
In 2014, taking into account the national results, Dilma Rousseff was elected with 52% of the valid votes and 48% of Aécio Neves. In Minas Gerais, Dilma won the second round with 52% to 48% of the vote.
2018: Bolsonaro vs Haddad
Considering the national results in 2018, Jair Bolsonaro received 55 percent of the valid votes and Fernando Haddad received 45 percent. In Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro won the second round with 58% to 42% of the vote.
source: Noticias
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