Ukraine: The United States had alerted its allies about Putin’s plan as early as October 2021

Could the war have been avoided? In October 2021, Joe Biden holds an emergency meeting in the Oval Office of the White House with his military and diplomatic advisers. Six months before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US intelligence is certain that Vladimir Putin is preparing a large-scale offensive in Ukraine, says the Washington Post in a long investigation that has just come to light.

According to this reference newspaper in the United States, Joe Biden alerted Washington’s closest allies, France, the United Kingdom and Germany, at the end of October in Rome, during the G20 summit. A few weeks later, the director of American intelligence, Avril Haines, addresses the issue before several NATO member countries. But, according to Washington Postreactions are skeptical.

“French and German officials did not understand why Putin would try to invade and occupy a large country with only 80,000 to 90,000 soldiers,” the newspaper writes. “Satellite images also showed troops moving back and forth across the border.”

The fear of an American mistake

Only the Baltic countries and the British support the United States at the moment. Fearing political manipulation after American errors in analysis at the time of the Iraq war and during the fall of Afghanistan, the Germans and French refuse to validate Washington’s version.

According to the Washington Post, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel did not think that Putin could do something so “irrational”.

From November 2021 to February 2022, the Americans will increase discussions behind the scenes to alert the various European countries, but also to increase their presence in the Old Continent, with the arrival of numerous soldiers in the weeks prior to the start of the conflict.

European leaders did not believe in an invasion

But even a few days before the start of the war, many Europeans did not believe in a possible invasion of Ukraine. Including Emmanuel Macron and his advisers.

The Head of State, who was about to start his electoral campaign, multiplied diplomatic meetings and telephone calls with Vladimir Putin. On February 20, after a tense exchange, he believed he had obtained an agreement from the Russian president for an exceptional meeting with Joe Biden. Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic adviser to the President of the Republic, would even have danced, according to the Washington Post.

Except it was nothing. Just hours after hanging up and thanking Emmanuel Macron in French, Vladimir Putin officially recognizes two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine. Four days later, war is declared.