The Italians balcony without enthusiasm the electoral campaign of the parliamentary elections of 25 September, in which few participate and has taken on a boring air. The problems that concern them are uncontrollable increase in gas and electricity prices and other energy products that generalize the so-called “dear life”.

Wages in popular sectors are growing less than in other developed countries. Italy is the bottom of the ranking: salaries have grown by 0.3% in the last thirty years, compared to over 30% in countries like France or Germany and much more in other of the 27 countries of the European Union .

A major victory is expected for the right-wing alliance, which makes similar promises to other political forces.

On the other hand, it is certain that Italy, like the rest of Europeans, is adrift severe shock of an economic recession which will reach devastating levels in the coming autumn-winter.

Giorgia Meloni is strengthened

The big political news is that the right-wing alliance will most likely triumph by a wide margin, according to the polls, and will take office in Palazzo Chiggi for the first time to a woman Giorgia Meloni, 45, is a party tinged with neo-fascist roots and nostalgia, called the Brothers of Italy.

The latest polls on Tuesday showed that Meloni’s party gained another point in the past week at 25%, while his comrades, La Liga, led by Matteo Salvini and former three-time prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, lost. the power.

Salvini’s League remained at 12.5% ​​and Berlusconi fell to 7%. The novelty is that the center-left populist 5-star movement, which was forecast to rise, has practically equaled it with 12.3%.

The case of Berlusconi is more dramatic, because his fall has dropped to 7% in the polls and was overtaken by the centrist group Acción, with 7.4%.

These changes have not tripped the center-right alliance, where Berlusconi is the only one to claim the center-right. But they pointed to some signs.

Salvini, a right-wing populist who loves big promises to the electorate, such as a flat rate of 15% to pay income taxes, suffers from a consensual hemorrhage that has lasted for three years, when he was the most popular Italian politician with 34 , 5%. Some of those who leave do so in the political tents of Giorgia Meloni’s party.

figures in dance

This flow is continuous. The rights accumulate 46-47% according to the fluctuations of the pollswhich are far from the 28.7% accumulated by the weak center-left alliance led by the Democratic Party together with smaller groups.

The thrust shown by Accion by passing Salvini’s League to the polls has revived the hopes of the center-left area to be able to give a worthy battle at the polls and in the typical conduct of a parliamentary regime. Another last-minute poll showed that the center-left is much stronger among young people under 34.

The first party is not that of Giorgia Meloni but the Pd of Enrico Letta. The overwhelming overall difference of 18-19 points is halved at the youth level.

Specialists believe that these data are not sufficient to overturn the predictions because the current electoral law (which the Democratic Party also voted, so it cannot complain) establishes that two thirds of the 600 deputies and senators involved are elected proportionally. The trap is in the remaining third where a uninominal mechanism governs.

It is estimated that the right will dominate the single-seat elections so much that in the final tally they will be able to they exceed two thirds of elected parliamentarians. For the center-left it would amount to a catastrophe.

The shadow of the recession

The ghost that increasingly obscures the election campaign is the economic context which is turning into a powder keg that will soon explode into a recession at least similar to the one that punished the world in 2008.

The rapid and dizzying increase in the prices of energy from natural gas and electricity has caused increases of 100,200, 400 and even 1000 per cent. with hundreds of thousands of redundant workers.

The scenarios are complicated because the government still in office until the one that comes out of the elections in early November is led by the resigning premier Mario Draghi.

The head of the government is opposed to increasing Italy’s huge public debt to obtain funds to be distributed among businesses, workers and other sectors suffocated by the expanding crisis.

Two immediate aid decrees are envisaged. The government traces the funds everywhere so as not to fall into the “budget variant”, which hides the pure and simple truth of the increase in public debt.

The industrialists are asking immediately for 40 billion euros to deal with the situation. With the other sectors, the figure for non-repayable funds doubles. Italy produces a gross domestic product of 1.6 trillion (million million) euros annually. We must add 70 billion that are paid for interest on the public debt, which reaches 2.7 billion euros.

Increasing the debt means stimulating the great speculation that is ready to act. At this point, more debt increases the interest spreads between Italian and German bonds, a financial holiday that will cost Italy dearly.

Rome, correspondent

CB