Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying at all costs to suppress uprisings in the post-Soviet space, where Armenians and Azeris, Kyrgyz and Tajiks are participating in violent border escalations, which the West can use to dynamite the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine.
In recent days, Putin has had intense talks with leaders of Caucasian and Central Asian countries to encourage them to avoid a military escalation that would undermine the progress of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.
More than 200 people died on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and more than 100 people died on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border line.
Armenians and Kyrgyz are close allies of Russia, but Moscow also has a military base in Tajikistan, which shares more than 1,300 kilometers of border with Afghanistan, and energy interests in Azerbaijan, which borders the Caspian Sea.
HANDS BUSY RUSSIA
Russia’s reaction shows that the last thing the Kremlin wants is a gunfight in its backyard, forcing it to intervene, as in the violent uprising that broke out in Kazakhstan last January.
Unlike then, the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTO) did not heed the Armenian call for help after what it called the “aggression” of Azerbaijan.
In the 2020 conflict for control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the CTO had the excuse that hostilities did not take place on Armenian soil, while now it cannot resort to this argument unless the goal is to divert the necessary resources in Ukraine.
The cards are open. The “special military operation” in Ukraine occupies Russia’s hand. For example, the Russian army did not intervene in Ukraine until it had completed its mission in Syria, where it prevented the overthrow of Bashar Assad.
As a matter of fact, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accepted the invitation to attend the Cooperation Organization summit in Shanghai in Uzbekistan last Friday, but Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused.
Worse, Putin met in Samarkand not only with Aliev, but also with Baku’s main ally, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
TURKEY AND IRAN, AN IMPOSSIBLE BALANCE
Analysts think that what is happening in the post-Soviet space responds not only to the wishes of the Kremlin, but also to the interests of other regional actors, especially Turkey.
In this logic, Putin would have succumbed to Erdogan’s claims in Armenia, who was very interested in building a land corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and this could upset the balance of power in the Caucasus.
Turkey shares a border of only ten kilometers with the Azeri autonomous republic of Nakhchivan, separated from the rest of the country by several tens of kilometers of Armenian territory.
To draw this corridor, Turkey seeks approval from Iran, which has made it clear that it opposes regional hegemony and is against this project.
Iran shares a 44-kilometer border with Armenia, with which it maintains good relations, largely due to its large Azeri minority living in the explosive north of the Islamic republic.
Russia has even shown today that it is willing to host a meeting in Moscow between Erdogan and Assad, who have always accused Ankara of threatening Syria’s territorial integrity.
In this case, as in the case of the Armenians, the currency would be the Kurds and their aspirations for independence in the north of the Arab country.
In addition, Iran has close relations with Tajikistan, which has historical and cultural ties.
Conflicts along nearly 1,000 kilometers of the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border, less than half of which are unmarked, have forced more than 140,000 Kyrgyzstani evacuees with China, the largest in the history of this border country.
THE SHADOW OF TAIWAN
While Putin was trying to calm things down in the region, the most explosive of the guests came to the Caucasian powder keg: Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
While the visit had been planned for a long time, Saturday’s arrival coincided with rising tensions in the region, reminding Moscow of a recent visit to Taiwan that sparked international disputes with China.
Pelosi openly condemned “Azerbaijan’s deadly attacks on Armenian lands” if the Kremlin tried to cover it up.
While the Armenian government appreciated the “open” US stance on the conflict, the Azerbaijani government described Pelosi’s statements as “unfair” and “unacceptable”.
Along the same lines, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Aliyev on Sunday, calling for a permanent ceasefire with Armenia, which includes the withdrawal of troops from the border.
Forced to close all its military bases in Central Asia due to pressure from Russia and China, the US is trying to exploit any weakness to return to the region after its disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The red line to supply heavy long-range weapons to Ukraine will be accompanied by another dangerous scenario, the US intervention in Russia’s backyard.
Azerbaijan has always been torn between two waters, but after recent setbacks, Armenia may reconsider its foreign policy and reduce its almost total dependence on the Kremlin. EFE
source: Noticias
