The consultants and analysts pressed their foot lightly on the brake of theirs inflation forecasts two months from the end of 2022, but accelerated it for 2023 and 2024. And they expect more business growth in the coming months than previous estimates, and have reduced it for the next two years.
After assuming that in October the rise in prices would have been 6.5%, it is estimated that 2022 will close with inflation of 100% compared to the 100.3 %% of the previous month according to the survey on market expectations. (REM) issued by the Central Bank every month.
These numbers emerge based on the forecasts of 39 participants, including 26 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 13 Argentine financial institutions.
Those who best predict the rise in retail prices expect inflation to be 101.2% higher, on average, but 0.3 points lower than the September survey.
Inflation of 100% this year would be reached because it is estimated for November a price increase of 6.2% and 6.4% for December.
The participants in the REM instead revised the inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 96% (5.5 points more than the previous REM) and for 2024 at 69.6% (also 2.8 points more than the previous REM). last document). Numbers that contrast with the 60% hypothesis with which the 2023 Finance Act was prepared.
Higher levels of inflation contribute decisively to reducing public spending in real terms, such as wages, pensions, social spending and meeting fiscal targets with the IMF.
These levels of inflation discount, among other things, the increase in electricity, water, gas, transport and prepaid tariffs, all tariffs regulated by the national state, by the provinces or by the municipalities.
In relation to the official dollar, analysts also made slight downward corrections.
The monthly average nominal wholesale exchange rate ($ / US $) on business days was $ 152.69 per dollar as of October 2022. And the REM forecast indicates a monthly increase of $ 9.51 (6.2% monthly compared to the previous report) up to $ 162.20 per dollar in November 2022 and $ 172.33 for December compared to the previous survey. Likewise, increases through February 2023 are also expected to be lower than expected a month ago.
Those participating in the REM expect real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 4.8% (0.7 points above the previous REM). To those who best predict economic growth, it suggests an average increase in GDP for 2022 of 4.9% (0.6 points more than in the September survey).
Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly change in GDP, for the third quarter of 2022 EMN participants estimated an increase of 0.8%, which implies an upward correction of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
Meanwhile, economic growth of 0.9% is expected by 2023 (0.1 points less than the value of the previous survey). For 2024, a 1.9% change in real GDP is expected (0.1 pp compared to the value of the previous survey).
Source: Clarin
