“The long populist cycle that began in 1945 It could end.” concludes the British weekly “The Economist”, in an article on Peronism, populism and Argentine destiny. The prestigious English outlet makes it clear that “the next government You’ll need to build a broad coalition, but you might have a thing for yourself.”
“The crisis we are in generates a consent to change which will allow us to achieve what in other periods would not have been possible”, according to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, mayor of Buenos Aires and “the strongest presidential candidate of the opposition”, for “The Economist”.
“In the near term, the decline of Peronism suggests that the centre-right opposition will win next year’s elections, provided they can overcome their internal divisions and manage to eliminate competition from Javier Milei, a libertarian popular with the youth “, he has declared. he describes “The Economist”. Some political scientists believe that the opposition can obtain an absolute majority in Congress, that would have allowed him to enforce the sweeping economic reforms that Macri evaded.
In addition to cutting spending to eliminate the deficit and unify the exchange rate, the changes include fighting vested interests. Such reforms could restore confidence in the peso, attract capital flight to return, and ultimately stimulate growth. But “reforms have many losers in the short run”, warns Eduardo Levy Yeyati, an economist who advises the opposition.
The weekly reconstructs the history of Peronism, its political trajectory and the years in power.It is now at its lowest point. The energy, grace and teamwork of Argentine footballers are not echoed in his government. Alberto Fernández, president of Argentina since 2019, leads a weak, divided and failed administration.”
October 17, Peronist Loyalty Day, as it is called in homage to that 1945 rally (which saw the birth of Peronism) saw three rival commemorations in 2022,” describes the British outlet. President Alberto Fernández did not attend to none of them Vice-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner -the most powerful figure of Peronism- spend time without talking to Fernández.
Plagued by the causes of corruption, “The Economist” retracts the charges against the former president and her husband Néstor Kirchner. “He shocked his supporters by saying he would not seek to run in the general election. scheduled for October 2023. Could be a ruse. But it could also reflect their decline in public support,” they argue.
“Even Peronism is without ideas, as evidenced by Argentina’s chronic economic crisis. Macri tried but failed to stabilize the economy he inherited after a decade of excessive spending by the Kirchners. The Fernández government has tried halfway. He forced the approval of a 44 billion dollar loan from the IMF which is essential to support the burden, but requires a more rigorous monetary and fiscal policy”, judges “The Economist”.
understands that the “The economy is held together by a series of price and exchange controls. Even so, inflation will be close to 100% this year and on the (tolerated) black market the peso is worth less than a quarter of its value three years ago. The decline of Peronism is intertwined with that of the country as a whole. . “Today we are in our worst moment,” summarizes former president Eduardo Duhalde in the article.
“The problem is that populism creates expectations it cannot meet. There are two consequences. The Fernández government, like many of its predecessors, finances itself in part by printing money. Long track record means Argentines are wary of weight. All this generates inflation, which the government masks with multiple exchange rates, offering cheap dollars for selected imports and discriminating against exports”, criticizes “The Economist”. “A second problem is that it protects vested interests, such as uncompetitive industrialists and union barons, receiving unsustainable subsidies and privileges, which causes a chronic fiscal deficit,” he adds.
Peronism survived by organizing and representing the informal economy, through social movements and a powerful clientele network in the poorest suburbs of the cities. “Cristina Kirchner still has the ability to mobilize the poor,” according to Loris Zanatta. The sociologist thinks he wants to get enough support to stay in politics by posing as a victim. “Go back to Evita and her resignation from the vice presidential bid in 1951“, He says.
“He tried to divide rather than unite Argentines. (The Minister of Economy, Sergio) Massa it represents a third, more liberal branch of Peronism that was in power in the 1990s under Menem. As Kirchnerism fades, that line may return. But some think Peronism could be divided,” according to the UK outlet.
“Peronism is so deeply woven into the national fabric that it is difficult to imagine it disappearing. Its religious quality underscores emotion and redemption,” according to Zanatta. “Peronists may be wrong, but we must remain Peronists,” says Sonia Manzoni, leader of a small cooperative that produces nursery plants that is part of Movimiento Evita. Peronist social movement.
Charles Arterburn is a seasoned business journalist for News Rebeat, where he provides comprehensive coverage of the latest trends and developments in the world of finance and economics.