As part of the restructuring of energy prices, the Government decided that taxes levied on fuels stop being a fixed sum that is adjusted for inflation. Initially, this tax change may moderate the expected increase in naphtha and diesel in the coming months, although there is a risk that pump prices will rise in the future.

The pregnancy rule for these taxes to return being a percentage will also be indicated more fiscal pressure on fuel than diesel and “green” fuels, identified as Premium, than others.

ITCL and the Carbon Tax are those specific charges they are applied to the amount at the refinery outlet and now they are in the form of a fixed sum that must be updated quarterly by the Consumer Price Index.

In its eagerness to curb inflation, the Economy has cooled the amount of these taxes from last July to June of this year and the question now is to determine what course they will follow in a few weeks, when the brakes expire. that.

If they unfreeze now, those taxes need to increase by 51%. But if the aliquots the Nation expects are applied, that jump could be reduced to an average of 25%, with a different impact depending on the type of product.

Right now equivalent to $ 17 per liter in gasoline and $ 12 in the case of diesel. If they were updated for inflation, they would increase to $ 26 and $ 18.5, respectively.

If they rise according to the expected percentage, the jump will be a little lower: up to $ 21 and $ 15. The great unknown that is clear is what will happen from this moment, which is equivalent to determine what will happen to the country in the price of oilprimary input.

The adjustment will be part of a series of tax changes affecting the entire industry and the Economy will try to implement through a law. But if the political difficulties in Parliament do not allow this to be clarified, it is examining its doing so through a decree of necessity and urgency, a similar legal path as planned for this year’s Budget.

The pregnancy initiative promises to resolve key issues including the rejected 2022 budget project and the promotion of hydrocarbon activities that have been in Congress for several months without getting treatment.

Between them, the likelihood that YPF will reimburse past losses what should be transferred to the Treasury of the Tax on the Transfer of Liquid Fuels. Millionaire balm for the accounts of major oil companies operating in the local market.

According to the official project, lThe fuel tax rate will be 41.9% and for diesel 25.5%. But since fuels sold in Patagonia and biofuels are not included, in the opinion of proponents of the initiative, the average is lower than those percentages.

The ITCL and the CO2 tax were converted to a fixed sum adjustable by retail prices by the previous government, with the assumed goal of isolate what is happening to local suppliers from the world oil priceaccording to Daniel Redondo, former Secretary of Energy Planning during Mauricio Macri’s presidency.

price issue

Marriage or divorce of local and international prices has always been a controversial and non -linear issue.

According to an Ecolatina study, last year fuels in the Metropolitan Area rose between 10 and 15% in dollars, depending on product and quality. At the same time, Brent (a type of crude taken as reference in Argentina) rose 60% in hard currency. In fact, there is a divorce that, in this time of high international prices, is helpful contains local values.

Crude now trades just above US $ 60 in Argentina but exceeds US $ 100 in a world disturbed, among other factors, by the war in Europe. Hence the desire of locally operating oil companies to have the freedom to export and the free availability of the foreign currency they acquire.

There are new rules predicted in this sense in the broad bill of more than 100 articles sent by the Executive Branch to Congress a few months ago to promote activity in the sector, but that tensions between the blocs party and within the ruling party itself opposed treatment. in the enclosure.

at this point producers prefer certain specific standards which strengthens your business in a broad law that is not sanctioned. And Martín Guzmán’s ministry knows that there are some tax issues that can’t wait, so the compendium of just over 30 articles was developed to facilitate discussion in parliament or found a DNU.

Local fuel prices are free from a formal point of view. However, the course (always upwards) in the bombs results from unwritten agreements between manufacturing and refining companies and state regulations that molds them.

There is no “price path”, as Teófilo Lacroze, CEO of Raizen, which runs the Shell brand, said publicly. Something that will provide more predictability to the industry, it is now more subject to political decisions where the YPF plays an important role as market leader.

Its president, Pablo González, has publicly declared himself in favor of those taxes as a percentage and not a fixed amount tied to the alarming increase in the IPC. Gasoline and diesel also affect the costs of sensitive activities such as transportation, and in the midst of an inflationary explosion, their content is an inevitable official goal.

But there aren’t too many state resources to activate the brake. If it limits the price of oil significantly, investments decline. If the Executive cuts more taxes – VAT and Total Revenue are also paid when the tank is filled – the collection that desperately needs to be boosted will fall.

Another of the financial adjustments seen in a new tax project for the sector that aims to see the light is imported diesel is exempt from taxwhich the country has to do due to lack of other essential energy products.

This liquid fuel is purchased abroad to run power plants, because local gas is not enough during times of high demand. But there is also not enough oil for refining, a glassy point in the relationship between producers and refiners.

If companies that don’t produce crude have to go out and buy it overseas, they will have to face a higher price that they can’t pass on to the supplier. And there one of the most common business bans in recent times has been formedwhich also involves the government in power: refiners accuse producers of obtaining export permits for sale abroad when the domestic market is not satisfied.

Another of the bids on this complex map of public and private interest that determines how much it costs to fill a tank now and how much it will cost in a few weeks.