Argentine savers and investors find themselves with a problem at the beginning of 2024: After the lowering of economic rates and the reduction of the exchange rate gap they seem to have disappeared from the local market investments to defeat inflation. Here because, many appear willing to increase the risk profile of their portfolioswith the promise of obtaining a performance that protects the value of his pesos.
For these less conservative profiles, some companies listed both on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange and abroad They can serve as an option to navigate for a year marked by stagflation and doubts about the new government’s economic plan.
For those who They try to “diversify” their portfolio investments e take some of the Argentine riskTHE cedars (Argentine Certificates of Deposit) Peso instruments that replicate shares of companies that listed abroad, such as Apple, Microsoft, Disney, Tesla, Coca-Cola and Amazon.
These are linked to the CCL dollar exchange rate (Cash with settlement). Therefore, its value increases if the exchange rate increases beyond that of the company. According to data from Galicia Research, in December, the 150 most traded CEDEAR of ByMA shares They showed a average increase of 26%, to close the year 2023 with a significant improvement of almost 300%.
“A year 2023 that brought good returns for risky assets presents us with a 2024 with arguments to remain aggressive in our portfolio cedars. The S&P500 index closed the year with a return of 26.8%,” said Flavio E. Castro of Criteria, adding: “Considering the reasons that allow us to continue to be aggressive in 2024, Visa and Alphabet are two of our favorite CEDORS with increased participation in our recommended portfolio.”
Both stocks just hit one-year highs in their prices. “It is difficult to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of profitability of the market, but some aspects of the stock market and the US economy they make us think about opportunities remain aggressive in our elections. Visa and alphabet These are still two of our ideas favorites in the current market. At the beginning of the year 2024, the Cedears Criteria Recommendation portfolio maintains 40% of your portfolio between these two value alternatives,” Castro said.
For his part, Massimiliano Donzelli Head of Research at IOL Invertironline, declared that he will dedicate himself 10% of a portfolio with a stable outlook for Wall Mart’s Cedear: “It is the largest multinational supermarket and discount company in the world. It has had a strong price correction since the last quarterly report, where the extent of the price decline is not related to what was reported,” he explained.
Donzelli too weighted bet on the S&P 500 index (SPY), to which I would give greater preponderance in the case of a riskier portfolio. “The fund aims to replicate the behavior of the S&P 500, one of the most important benchmark stock indexes in the United States. Like the index it takes as a reference, it stands out for its positioning in companies with large market capitalization,” he noted.
Argentine companies: which ones can avoid stagflation
In a recent study by the IEB Group (Investing in the Stock Market) it is analysed What are the sectors that could benefit from it? for the economic changes that Javier Milei seeks to promote through the DNU and the Omnibus Law currently under discussion in Congress.
The report highlights that companies such as Central Puerto, Transportadora Gas del Norte, Transener, Cuyana gas distributor, Autopistas del Sol and Edenor, all exposed to the update of the tariff tables scheduled for this year.
Another sector that could benefit from the correction of relative prices is that of oil and gas. Here, IEB analysts highlighted: “We like YPF, Transportadora Gas del Sur and Pampa Energía for their exposure to Vista Energy’s Vaca Muerta and Cedear.”
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Source: Clarin
