After 6% in April, what can you expect from inflation in May

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After 6% in April, what can you expect from inflation in May

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In the first week of May there was a 5.4% increase in food, according to measurement by LCG consultancy. Photo Enrique Garcia Medina

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April inflation of 6% found on Thursday was lower than in March, but there are doubts about how prices might improve in may. From the Government, they estimate that, after the most significant impact of the global price crisis due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation should ease to return at a monthly level close to 4%i.e., similar to the January variation.

Economists contributed their forecasts to the Central Bank’s Survey of Market Expectations (REM). In the last report, they indicated that they were already estimating the retail price increase it will reach 4.4% this month.

Economist Fausto Spotorno, from consultancy firm OF & Asociados, pointed out, in radio statements, that the first week — which is usually stronger — shows a 3%increase. And he estimated that the whole month of May is at 5% or more.

A similar estimate is administered by consulting firm EcoGo. “We believe it will slow down, but not much, on the order of 5%”, Sebastián Menescaldi, an economist at that consulting firm, pointed out. According to these records, food is expected to increase by 4.7% in May.

From consulting firm LCG, which measures food prices on a weekly basis, indicate that in the first week of May this item will be visible increase of 5.4% compared to the same period in April.

“If this data is confirmed, it means a contribution of 1.4 inflation points. Furthermore, timely increases will need to be added to 11% of fuels; 8% on prepaid; 9.5% increase in telephony, cable and internet; 15.5% of CNG; 9% for domestic employees; between 15% and 20% increase in costs and 8% increase for private schools in Buenos Aires ”, he pointed out in his latest report. And he added that “between them all, they contributed about 1.7 additional points in May.

In supermarkets, there are shortages in Care Prices products.  Photo Enrique Garcia Medina

In supermarkets, there are shortages in Care Prices products. Photo Enrique Garcia Medina

In any case, the consultant defined that “in an optimistic framework, the slowdown in monthly inflation in records of 4% indicate annual inflation of 68.4% through December. However, it seems faint“, he pointed out.

“The effects of higher international inflation, at the local level, are derived from raised some of the anchors which, until last year, contained price dynamics. So far, the BCRA is accelerating the official exchange rate slump as agreed with the IMF, and the Government has moved forward with public hearings to remove the rate freeze. The effects of the first and second rounds will be felt in the coming months, “he warned. As a result, the consultancy firm corrected its inflation forecast up to levels above 70% annually until December “, LCG explained.

Finally, another factor that could affect inflation in May, according to economist Hernán Letcher, from CEPA, is revenue adjustments to be implemented this month. For example, the first phase of reinforcement of $ 18,000 for the unemployed, monotributists A and B, workers in private homes and others, and the second phase of reinforcement for retirees and retirees, of $ 12,000, in addition to others. more updates and advances in the salary of peers.

“For some concentrated sectors, revenue improvement is interpreted as “carte blanche” to highlight and maintain profit margins ”, the economist defined.


Source: Clarin

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