The economy is confident that the first revision with the IMF has been approved and expects the turnaround of 4,000 million dollars

The government is confident of approving the first test with the IMF in the coming days. This is the audit launched at the beginning of May to assess compliance with fiscal, monetary and exchange rate objectives. The Ministry of Economy believes it is about to close and the expectation is that the board of the Fund will validate it before releasing the second payment of 4,000 million dollars, which will arrive by the end of the month.

“The first quarter review is about to closeeverything is on track for at some point to get the ok in the staff report “, confirm sources of the Palacio de Hacienda. Martín Guzmán’s team has maintained contact with Washington as part of the virtual mission with the staff planned for the June 10 and which was brought forward to May due to the impact of the war in Ukraine.

The closure of the audit involves a series of steps, starting with an agreement between the technicians and the Economy (agreement on the level of personnel). Then the Board deals with it for approval and, once this happens, the report (staff report) is published with the evaluation of the directors and their recommendations. “The work continues and we hope to communicate the conclusion of the review soon.“, indicated the sources of the organism.

In private meetings The minister has already told businessmen that he has exceeded the three goals of the first quarter. First, the deficit remained within the 0.3% ceiling ($ 222,000 million), a goal achieved by allocating the profits from the registration of bonds for a value greater than what they would correspond, a maneuver that was seen by analysts as accounting. device.

Conversely, reserve accumulation in the first quarter was over US $ 1,600 million, above the expected floor of US $ 1,200 million, thanks to the outlay of US $ 9,700 million from the Fund following the approval of the Extended Facilities agreement in March. And the sharp contraction in monetary issuance allowed the Central Bank’s assistance to the Treasury not to exceed the ceiling of 236,800 million dollars (0.3% of GDP).

Looking at the second quarter, analysts are not ruling out changes in some objectives and increased requests from the agency given the likelihood of a default. “They plan to lower the reserve targets for the second quarter, raise the reserve targets for the third quarter and keep those for the fourth quarter. they will demand greater interest rate hikes and accelerate the devaluation ratesaid the economist Miguel Kiguel. The Fund also has spending in its sights.