Batakis took over amid the dollar rally and a “trade vacation” that held back sales

By the time Silvina Batakis was sworn in as Economy Minister at 5:35 pm on Monday, the market and the real economy had already made their distrust of the management just begun felt.

The blue dollar launched the cornerstone with a rally that brought it to touch the $ 280 before noon he arrives, even if in the early afternoon, in the middle of a square with a lot of supply and little demand pulled back to close at $ 260. Even so, the informal climb was $ 21 pesos that day, the biggest jump in recent times.

At a similar pace, the MEP dollar and the cash dollar, the dollar used by companies, moved. $ 270 and $ 281and then set a record for all alternative dollars.

But the “Batakis effect” also made itself felt on the real economy. The phrase “without price” It has been heard in almost every trade corridor, referring to the fact that in the midst of the dollar’s rise and faced with uncertainty about how the economy is proceeding, businessmen and traders have preferred to wait rather than risk selling and going barefoot. .

In particular, wholesalers have stopped selling and have preferred to take care of the warehouse due to lack of certainty about what dollar they will be able to replace their products with. In retail stores, signs appeared warning that there was a shortage of goods or that current prices They would have a surcharge of around 20%.

With this climate in via Batakis, the day began with a meeting with President Alberto Fernández in the Quinta de Olivos which lasted until noon. From there he went to the Palacio de Hacienda where he first met Miguel Pesce and then Martín Guzmán, with whom he finished coordinating the transfer details.

In this transfer, Batakis will inherit at least one full-fledged secretary from Guzmán. Although it has not yet been announced who will make up his team, it has emerged that Energy will continue to be led by Darío Martínez and with Federico Basualdo as head of the Under-Secretary for Electricity and Federico Bernal at Enargas.

The rest of the team is yet to be defined. What is already clear is that the tariff segmentation that ended up triggering Guzmán’s farewell has remained at a standstill, which would confirm that Vice President Cristina Kirchner’s hand will continue to control the area and also the future of subsidies.

“I believe in fiscal balance”, Batakis said this after taking the oath at La Rosada in what appeared to be a stance taken in favor of the president in the dispute over the role of public spending in economic stability and inflation.

However, the market perception that Cristina imposed her view of the economy over Alberto pushed the dollar up and in one day there was little volume of operations due to the US vacation, further sank the bonds and the Merval.

And as has happened several times during the second half of June, the Central Bank had to intervene to prevent the collapse from being greater. Market sources argue that the monetary authority should have at least budgeted 220 billion dollars to support the price of the bonds in pesos.

In addition, the power plant had to sell $ 98 million to meet demand in the single free trade market (MULC). This was aided by home banking purchases to utilize the US $ 200 share of the savings dollar, spurred by a difference of up to 60 pesos between the dollar value in home banking and the blue.

This increase in demand led to the fact that during the morning difficulties in operating in home banking will be recorded of major entities, with complaints from users that they could not access their accounts, purchase foreign currency, or pay for expenses with a dollar card.

From the banks they assured them that the problems were transitory and that they were driven by high demand and that all customers who went to the branch in search of their dollars took them without problems.

This Tuesday, Minister Batakis must confirm your team and give the first signs. And face a complex test: with the US market fully operational, we will know the response of investors to the changes ordered by Alberto Fernández. Judging by today’s reaction from bonds and stocks, the minister could face a jump in country risk at her debut that increases the anxiety on which the Argentine economy is moving.