The combination of the Government’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the dollar stocks and the trigger of inflation they developed a new framework for the movement of money.

The hours of the rising blue dollar are behind us and now the concern of the fund holders is focused on what to do with the pesos to be saved, in a double attempt to rescue them from inflation (a massive task and with a high chance of losses from the start) and to beat the dollar.

The likelihood of beating the dollar in that race depends on “pax” will replace his argument which, at the same time, is supported by input field dollars and the realization of the IMF financial goal as pointed out by Minister Martín Guzmán.

Messages from the Government are varied, cross-cutting and disturbing (Kirchnerism increasingly separates itself from responsibility for economic outcomes of the government of Alberto Fernández), but the financiers based it on the fact that the Treasury is trying to take as many pesos as possible to fill the deficit and it hasgo to highest market cost, which pays the equivalent of inflation.

Letters indexed by CER (Reference Stabilization Coefficient) offered by the Treasury is “negative” the price due to high demand from banks, insurance companies, businesses and individuals looking for the return of the command of 5% monthly in the heat of the rising cost of living.

Will the blue dollar be able to rise 5% per month over the next 60 days? For many weight holders the answer is noalthough in the face of the political collapse of the ruling party others cover themselves up.

A few months ago, businessmen and opponents requested that Martín Guzmán present a plan with concrete and credible guidelines; now Kirchnerists from the government itself are demanding it, as are Roberto Feletti, Secretary of Commerce, and representative Máximo Kirchner.

Most likely the minister, who at the very beginning of his administration said there was no power point or road map, will pay for the cost of his strategy.

Guzmán signed an agreement with the IMF in Washington and never explained the scope of the content. I leave the interpretation to politics, and especially to its internal opponents, that now desperately trying to dispel the lack of good results, especially with regard to inflation.

The possibility that the cost of living index rose 6% in March This raises the question of when such an important jump was not recorded. For some since 1991, for others since September 2018, but the new and worrying about this possible 6% is in a stable dollar context and, almost, without the associated increase in rates.

There is an inertial phase of inflation where the Government seems powerless despite Feletti’s announcement of controls and baskets with agreed prices or the renewal with “only” increases of 3% of the prices paid.

With this inertia rises the discussion of parity that begins with requests for increase of more than 50% which, a priori, is grandiose, but they are likely to lose the race.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank is aggregating 4% monthly increase in the official exchange rate and wait until wednesday 13thwhen to know the rising cost of living for March, to decide on increasing the interest rate of monetary policy that allows us to see if the Government is ready to fight inflation on the monetary side or if he leaves the battle on that front.

In Government, everyone points to Martín Guzmán. Alberto Fernández, as almost the only support, and Vice Presidents Cristina Kirchner and La Cámpora, as scapegoat for the crisis. doIt would be true that Sergio Massa tried the suit as a possible replacement and super ministeras it has been commented on in many rumors?

So far, the President is showing signs of do not part with your most loyal officers, even though crises and a good portion of his internal enemies put him under pressure. But after more than two years of management, inflation of 6% a month, if it is confirmed, will be a severe blow.