Frantic wheel: financial dollars drop between 5 and 7% and bonds and stocks “fly”

Wednesday’s financial session began with the certainty that Serge Massa would play an important role in the conduct of economic policy. And with that certainty he operated in bullish mode throughout the day, despite the confirmation of Massa at the head of a Ministry of Economy authorized One arrived after the business closed.

The concrete thing is that to bet on economic measures of orthodox courtthat in the short term aim to raise dollars for reserves and raise interest rates so that they become truly positive, the Argentine card has grown substantially and exchange rates have reversed the sharp rise of these days.

In summary, Financial dollars trading on the stock exchange fell between 5 and 7% and closed at $ 321 in cash on settlement and $ 301 for the MEP dollar, while in the informal market the blue dollar settled at $ 309 after being dropped by 3.7%. For their part, dollar-denominated debt has accentuated the recovery they have seen since Friday. There have been increases of up to 12% such as the AL30 which accumulates a 22% improvement in four days.

The recovery of dollar bonds allowed the Country Risk index to score a drop of 5.4%, to 2,538 basis points.

The MerVal index, expressed in dollars, was up 5.6%. It was nearly stationary when measured in pesos, but this is because the decline in financial dollars kept prices steady in pesos but valued in dollars.

Financial traders, as has been said, are enthusiastic about the rebound in prices but exploited by the fact that the prices of Argentine financial assets, especially bonds, are literally down. The The AL30 bond rose to $ 22 but was at $ 17 last week. They are “bargain” prices and worth betting on the rebound.

Another factor that has pushed bond prices higher is that many companies have been forced to do so disarm their positions in Cedears (cards that are listed here but refer to Wall Street) and with those pesos they look for dollar bonds to keep their wallets dollarized.

The fall of the dollar is a bet on the progress of measures aimed at encouraging the sale of cereals that will make it possible to fatten the reserves of the Central Bank, which are at critical levels.. Clarione anticipated a draft plan that is in the power of Massa which contemplates the possibility of enabling a time window so that soybeans are regulated at the value of the MEP dollar. If this is confirmed, liquidations are projected to reach no less than $ 9 billion.

The case of debt securities is different. No matter how much rally they show, it is difficult for them to drastically reduce country risk. Especially since the macroeconomic conditions are very complicated. The 2020 swap was carried out with a country risk of 1,100 points. Today it is above 2500 points. And it is not yet known how it will be done lower inflationwhich is traveling at such a speed that it can reach the 90% by the end of 2022.