Unlike other occasions, this time there was no officer who said emphatically: “We will raise interest rates as necessary to balance the foreign exchange market.
Perhaps because July’s 7.4% inflation was at the center of the bad economic data these days, the hit the government gave the rate of interest was left in the background.
The announcement of a 9.5 point increase in the benchmark interest rate resulted in the achievement of this target 69.5% per year, that actual year represents 96.5%, a level that even exceeds the inflation calculation of the best forecasters consulted by the Central Bank, which for this year is 94.10%.
The jump in speed is hidden in the nebula of very high nominality which acquire the main variables in the heat of an inflation that experts refuse to define as “hyper” but it hits hard the pockets of the population.
From a macroeconomic point of view, the minister’s message Serge Massa it is clear: raise the interest rate in an attempt to positioning in pesos becomes attractive Y lose it by buying dollars.
The rate of fixed-term contract of 69.50% per annum (Actual 96.58%) for 30-day deposits of people can be attractive for the return of what is known as “financial speculation on the interest rate” consists of sell dollars and put money on a fixed-term basis betting that the rent of the rate beats the change in the dollar.
Massa insists, and now with the sledgehammer of the tariffs in fact, that does not want to apply a devaluation and that his idea is to keep the updates official dollar in the hope that in September, once energy imports decline due to the return of heat, the foreign exchange market will achieve some sort of stabilization. And all in spite of it the dollar gap remains well above 100%.
For now, the numbers are not good. Last year, in the cumulative to July, the liquidation of grain and oil exporters was 10% lower than this year and the Central Bank was able to buy reserves for 6 billion dollars. only this year $ 600 million.
The focus of the economic emergency remains on the shortage of foreign currency and, for now, the announcements favor tax, albeit with uncertain results.
The savings announced by the increase in segmentation of electricity, gas and water tariffsaccording to preliminary calculations, it would reach $ 114 billion, which is an amount equivalent to what they will allocate to the payment of the bonus for pensioners.
The experts who follow the tax numbers believe that It will not be easy for Massa to reach the deficit of 2.5% of GDP agreed with the IMF, but they point this out with inflation forecast at 94% for this year the liquefaction of pensions and pensions will contribute to the decline in real spending.
From the government they assure them that they will enter within the week 1 billion dollars from the agreement with the cereal companies to anticipate the liquidation of exports, but the the second half is a long way in terms of shortage of foreign exchange and more after the dynamics of the first half.
In the first half of this year, exports reached $ 44.377 million, with a + 25.5% compared to the same period in 2021.
As for the import, the the increase was 44.3% for a total of 41,284 million dollars, to the detriment of the “import festival” denounced by vice president Cristina Kirchner, who in recent days is silent against the provisions of the Minister of the Economy.
At the beginning of his administration, Massa announced the free availability of dollars to increase the production of oil companies, he also exchanged the debt for pesos, offering dual high yield bonds (they pay the best rate between inflation and devaluation). In addition, in an attempt to convince him, it provided for an additional mobility bonus for retirees and a sharp rise in interest rates will not apply a strong trade jump.
The set of provisions of the new minister and after the hot flash of the dollar this far from representing a stabilization plan and would become part of the long gallery of programs featuring “We are seeing it” as inflation continues to skyrocket.
Daniel Fernandez Canedo