The settlement of dollars from the field was a record but the Central Bank continues to lose reserves

The Central Bank started the month with ant purchases on the foreign exchange market, as it did in the second half of August: the monetary authority bought just $ 1 million and extends a series in which despite having stopped losing reserves it is not possible to replenish stocks and moves away from achieving one of the objectives agreed with the International Monetary Fund.

Last month, the organ chaired by Miguel Pesce ended with a negative balance of US $ 520 million following its interventions in the Single Exchange Market (MULC), with which it has obtained results moderate high indentation which he had scored in July.

However, from the end to the end of the month the stock of total reserves it fell by $ 1,501 million. They had started in August 38.232 million dollars and finished it at 36.731 million dollars. The decline was not only due to the sales of foreign currencies in the MULC; but to what its stock has depreciated, measured in dollars, due to the fall in the price of gold and Chinese yuan. Also because the debts with multilateral credit organizations have been canceled.

Sales added to the foreign exchange market net payments from the government to the IMF and other creditors of an additional $ 630 million. “Changes in the price of the yuan, gold and other movements squeezed out more than $ 550 million in reserves, which were partially offset by increase the laceDelphos analysts explain.

The figure becomes relevant when it is recalled that in the midst of the July weight run the coffers of the Central had already lost 4,555 million dollars. This is In two months, more than $ 6,500 million left the International Reserves.

field mana

The poor performance of the foreign exchange market contrasts with an August in which agricultural dollar liquidations reached a new record. According to CIARA data, agro-exporters were liquidated in August 3.387 million dollars, 11% more than it entered the official market a year ago. It was a record for a month of August. The liquidation accumulated in eight months of the year is also a record: 25,696 million dollars.

The concern shared by the government, the market and most financial analysts is the low level of net reserves, that some time ago would have broken through the threshold of 1,000 million dollars. Net reserves are just under dollars actually available to meet market demand, mainly from importers. The central bank must meet an IMF-agreed reserve accumulation target of $ 4.1 billion this month.

“With the Central Bank’s net reserves covering just a week of imports and SDRs (the IMF’s currency) sufficient to pay for commitments with the organization until early October, there is little margin for error for the purpose of economic management of the approach to the objectives of the end of September, committed in the agreement with the IMF “, he warned Jorge Vasconcelos by IERAL.

The last part of the year appears demanding for the organism, since however request for low energy consumption payments, there are big deadlines ahead with international organizations and less seasonal clearance of agriculture. For a guide to how many dollars can enter the last quarter: between September and December of last year CIARA paid US $ 9,578 million. If Sergio Massa’s announcement that there will be a new “soybean dollar” (or something similar) comes to fruition next Tuesday, an increase in liquidations could be expected.

How to defend the dollars

The question is how the government will handle the dollar shortage. “The “Step by step” imports. it is neither harmless to economic activity nor to the price level. The economy has already shown signs of exhaustion, with private polls showing monthly drops of 0.9% in industry and 0.3% in general economic activity, “PPI analysts said.

The B side of the import shutdown is higher demand for the financial dollar. “The exchange channel begins to operate with an increasing number of importers making their purchases overseas via CCL, giving up access to the MULC and passing that exchange rate on to prices. In other words, it is a devaluation that is taking place. in small fees, “they added.

In this scenario, despite a jump in the official exchange rate or a split in the financial market continue to be denied by the economic team as one of the variables to be explored in the short term, almost all City analysts are betting on that part.