Donald Trump is finally done

Whether or not Donald Trump’s hat is in the ring, he’s no longer a serious contender for the presidency.

It is not a line to be written lightly.

First, because he’s been dismissed so many times in the past after mocking John McCain’s military record; after the tape “Access Hollywood”; after January 6; after the January 6 commission hearings, which it seems reckless Do it again.

Second, because whenever he’s discarded, his followers seem to draw energy from his alleged irrelevance.

And third, because it will surely hang around my neck if I’m wrong.

But I don’t.

Last week, his devoted supporters finally realized that Trump can no longer give them what they want most: Power.

Or, let me put it in language more pleasant to them:

whatever purpose they think it should serve:

bring working-class voters back into the Republican fold; return nationalism to conservative ideology; reject the authority of so-called experts: it has already been done.

Now others can do the same better, without drama and divisiveness.

He is the man of the past.

This is an observation made from an objective reading of political reality:

trump It is expensive Republicans in the midterm elections.

In major Senate and cabinet races, the former president has offered his support based on loyalty rather than admissibility.

shot the electoral denial in an oath of allegiance.

Primary victories became pyrrhic.

In the same states where top Republicans have won handily (Chris Sununu in New Hampshire, Brian Kemp in Georgia, Mike DeWine in Ohio), Trump’s candidates have either underperformed or lost, a contrast that once again belies the notion that the Democrats somehow won only by cheating, breaking the rules or taking advantage of early voting.

But none of this alone would be enough to repel Trump devotees, just as Republican defeats in the House of Representatives in 2018, the White House in 2020, and the Senate in 2021 weren’t enough.

Three additional factors were needed.

The first is shock.

Republicans were expecting a landslide victory last week as much as Democrats were expecting Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Many of the polls predicted one, just like the normal ebb and flow of American politics.

Joe Biden he’s an unpopular upstart who presides over an inflationary economy and a border crisis.

For the GOP to perform so poorly is a no-excuse moment for the party, and the only coherent explanation is the specter of Trump.

The second is that Trump is finally existing abandoned by many of his tireless supporters and facilitators in the right-wing media, whose influence will be felt downstream.

This includes Fox News’ Laura Ingraham:

“If voters conclude you’re putting your ego or grievance ahead of what’s good for the country, they’ll look elsewhere.”

It includes Townhall’s Kurt Schlichter: “Trump has problems and we have to deal with them,” he admitted. “We owe Trump nothing. He’s a politician.”

Includes Victor Davis Hanson: “Will the unrepentant Trump escalate his insults, bray at the moon, play his current role as angry Ajax to the bitter end, and thus end up as a tragic hero, beloved of past service but considered excessive? Are they toxic to you?

None of these are complete repudiations, although they come close.

And they lead us to the third reason Trump is finally over:

his free pre-election success on the governor. Ron DeSantis of Florida, whose 19-point victory over Democrat Charlie Crist was one of the few unambiguous GOP highlights on election night.

The sin here is not that Trump violated Ronald Reagan’s famous Eleventh Commandment:

“You won’t badmouth any other Republican.”

Trump violated that commandment as freely as he violated so many others.

It was that it was a loser who criticized a winner, and what the Trump base wants most is a winner.

A wiser Trump would have made DeSantis’ victory his own, treating the governor as his own stellar pupil and designated successor.

But Trump couldn’t, and can’t do it with himself.

And what the Republican base sees in DeSantis is everything they like about Trump:

combativeness, self-confidence and contempt for the opinion of the elite, minus the personal baggage and self-sabotaging habits.

In the battle for the affections of American conservatives, the former president feels more and more like the pot-bellied and jealous husband, the governor the attractive and successful neighbor.

The field of potential primary contenders could still move one way for Trump, just as Hillary Clinton nearly cleared the field the last time she ran.

But with his midterm defeat, Trump proved once again that he is toxic and that he can never again win a general election.

He would be no match for a younger, more charismatic primary candidate, just as Clinton proved no match Barack Obama in 2008.

The field is wide open for a true Republican contender.

It’s time for someone to step up.

c.2022 The New York Times Company