Relations between the US and China are so tense that they could go off the rails at any moment. That was clarified this weekend with an alleged Chinese spy balloon that entered US airspace and derailed a trip by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing.

Beyond the protests, Washington is making an effort to maintain dialogue with its great rival and hopes for “responsible management” of relations with the Asian power.

The United States had bet heavily on the trip that was announced for this weekend by the head of its diplomacy, aimed at helping to ease tensions with China.

There are numerous points of contention between the two powers. They range from Taiwan to human rights to Chinese dominance of semiconductors.

For the Americans, it was about finding common ground with the Chinese and making sure that bilateral competition “does not escalate into conflict.”

Journey suspended

The Biden administration highlighted the possibility of cooperation with Beijing, for example in the field of climate, and said she was satisfied with China’s limited support for Russia in the war in Ukraine.

But the “spy” balloon incident forced Blinken to postpone the trip, demonstrating how fraught with difficulties the road to rapprochement with China is, under the pressure of the republican opposition, who denounced the “weakness” of the democratic government.

While considering the balloon incident “unacceptable”, Blinken tried to calm the spirits by assuring that his visit would be rescheduled as soon as “conditions permit”, and insisted on the need to keep “open lines of communication” with Beijing .

But the demolition of the ball, this Saturday, seems to tighten the bond even more and the possibilities for dialogue are removed.

According to Jacob Stokes of the Center for a New American Security, “The question was whether the shift in tone seen in China would mean Beijing would behave differently around the world.” “So far the answer has been no.”

The question now is whether the balloon incident risks “postponing the process” that began in Bali last November, when Biden met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, or even ending it.

The window of opportunity for this rapprochement has always been narrow and the month of February seemed ideal for both sides.

The clash over Taiwan

Next year there will be elections in the United States and in Taiwan, which China claims is part of its territory.

The leader of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, has made no secret of wanting to visit Taiwan after the trip of his Democratic predecessor Nancy Pelosi last August, which had exacerbated tensions with Beijing.

A senior US military official, General Mike Minihan, warned his troops in a recent memo that prepare for war after the election in Taiwan in 2024.

Yun Sun, director of the Stimson Center’s China program, rejects the idea that anyone wanted to torpedo Blinken’s trip, stressing that Xi Jinping himself would receive the head of US diplomacy.

“The Chinese appreciated this visit because they really want to work with the Americans to improve the relationship, especially since their priority is economic recovery,” Sun said.

It remains to be seen if the accident is not the signal of a dangerous escalation from China.

Matthew Kroenig, a former Defense Ministry official and Atlantic Council researcher, points out several nuclear weapons they’re stored in silos in remote locations in the western United States, right over which the spy balloon flew.

The Pentagon has downplayed the balloon’s ability to collect sensitive information, but according to the analyst, China would not have risked sending the aircraft without benefits.

“Indeed, it has given China the ability to better map US ICBM silos for future targets and evaluate the response” from Washington, he said.

“This testifies to Beijing’s blatant belief that the Communist Party of China can do it,” he added.

Source: AFP

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