The US presidential election, which will be held on November 5, 2024, is 13 months away. Experts who recently met in Washington, D.C., were all predicting a return match between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
However, when asked who the final winner would be, everyone agreed that it was “difficult to predict.” It is expected that the close race in which President Yoon Seok-yeol won by a margin of only 247,077 votes (0.73 percentage points) in the 20th presidential election a year and a half ago will also unfold in the U.S. presidential election. President Biden and former President Trump are expected to face each other in next year’s U.S. presidential election. We have summarized the challenges and major variables they will face based on analysis by American reporters, U.S. think tank officials, and political science professors.
The biggest difference between the U.S. presidential election and our country’s presidential election is that it is a mixture of the indirect and direct elections conducted by the Electoral College. Even if the total number of votes is large, victory or defeat depends on who secures more electoral votes allocated to the 50 individual states.
In the 2016 US presidential election, Democratic Party’s former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received 64.15 million votes, approximately 1.92 million more than Trump (62.23 million votes), but only secured 230 electoral votes, with Trump, who received 290 votes, becoming the final winner. done. Previously, in the 2000 presidential election, Democratic candidate Al Gore was ahead of Republican President George W. Bush by about 540,000 votes nationwide in total votes, but ultimately lost by 5 electoral votes (266 to 271).
In this way, the electoral college, which determines the final success or failure of the U.S. presidential election, is distributed in proportion to the population of each state. As of the 2020 presidential election, the 538 electors were formed by adding the number of senators (100) and representatives (435), two from each of the 50 states, and then adding the three electors from Washington DC.
The problem is that in next year’s presidential election, the number of electoral votes distributed by state according to the U.S. population will change. According to demographic statistics compiled every 10 years, the population of states with a strong Republican Party, such as Texas, has increased, but the population of northeastern Michigan, Ohio, and New York has decreased. California (54), a traditional Democratic stronghold and the state with the most electoral votes among the 50 states, also saw its population decrease, leading to a decrease in the number of electoral votes.
The changes in the number of electoral votes for next year’s US presidential election are as follows.
|Electoral College changes||State (number of electoral votes changed in parentheses)|
|2 people increased||Texas (40)|
|1 person increased||Colorado (10), Florida (30), Montana (10), North Carolina (16), Oregon (8)|
|1 person reduced||California (54), Illinois (19), Michigan (15), New York (28), Ohio (17),
Pennsylvania (19), West Virginia (4)
It is still unclear whether this change in the composition of the electoral college will benefit the Democratic or Republican candidates. Todd L. Belt, Director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University, who recently visited Washington, D.C., hosted by the Korea Press Foundation and the East-West Center of the United States, said, “The most noteworthy aspect of next year’s presidential election is that the number of electoral votes has increased by one. “North Carolina,” he said. “It is also noteworthy that Texas, a traditionally strong Republican region, increased by two, and California and New York, traditionally strong Democratic regions, decreased by one person.”
Another variable is that the number of ‘swing states’ has decreased significantly compared to the 2020 presidential election.
In the US, the number of ‘swing states’ that influenced the direction of the US presidential election in the past is expected to decrease significantly compared to the 2020 presidential election.
Steve Herman, a senior reporter at the Voice of America (VOA), said in a meeting with the author and others, “Recently, in the United States, only four states – Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – are expected to play an important role in the results of next year’s presidential election.” He added, “In the end, the Democratic Party and “Both the Republican Party will focus more than 90% of its energy and manpower on these four states,” he predicted.
Recently, the Virginia State University Political Center also predicted Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia as swing states. CNN also predicted, “No matter how many competing states there are, they will not exceed 7 or 8,” and “it could be less than 4, which is the lowest ever.”
Who will this decrease in swing states be to the advantage of the Democratic or Republican candidates? “>View largerWho will be the new owner of the White House after winning the US presidential election next year? Attention around the world is focused on whether President Joe Biden will be re-elected, whether former President Donald Trump will return to power, or whether a third candidate will achieve a surprise victory. Washington =
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.