Scenario for Taiwan’s simultaneous attack on Beijing and Three Gorges Dam in preparation for Chinese invasion

Submarines, missiles, and drones are strengthened for large-scale Chinese military landing operations.

The topography and topography of Dongshan Island (東山島), located in southern Fujian Province, China, are similar to the main island of Taiwan. The coastline of this island, located 304km from Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s second largest city, stretches in a straight line and has been said to be suitable for amphibious landing training. The Chinese military has been training for landing operations targeting Taiwan every year in the Dacheng Bay area.

Taiwan’s military is test-firing the Xiongfeng-3 supersonic anti-ship missile in preparation for an invasion by the Chinese military. [대만 국방부 제공]

However, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued an unusual statement on September 21, saying that it was closely watching the movements of the Chinese military, which was conducting large-scale amphibious landing training here. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Qiu Kuo-zheng also reported to the Legislative Yuan (Parliament) that “the Chinese army’s land, navy, air force, and amphibious units are conducting joint training,” and that “the recent situation is very abnormal.” In fact, the Chinese military conducted landing operation training here for two weeks in September with the largest-ever number of ships, aircraft, and the Naval Land Forces (Marine Corps) participating. The Chinese military mobilized an aircraft carrier battle group for the first time in this exercise and also introduced new training methods, such as conducting strike training with long-range rockets and ballistic missiles.

Jejung, an associate researcher at the Taiwan National Policy Research Foundation, said, “The Chinese military also conducted landing training in Dacheng Bay in September 2021 and 2022.” “It included training in unloading personnel, equipment, and military supplies in preparation for situations where the ship could not be used due to blockage of shipping routes due to sinking,” he analyzed. Su Ziyun, director of the Strategic Resources Research Institute at the Taiwan Institute for Defense and Security Studies, pointed out, “The reason Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said it was closely watching the Chinese military’s training is because it judged that the scale of the Chinese military’s training has become larger than before.”

As the Chinese military prepares for an amphibious landing to invade Taiwan, the Taiwanese military is also actively strengthening its asymmetrical forces following the ‘hedgehog’ strategy to block it. Defense Minister Chu said, “Ukraine is confronting a huge enemy called Russia with asymmetrical power,” and added, “Taiwan also has no choice but to become a ‘David’ against the ‘Goliath’ of China.” The core of Taiwan’s military strategy is ‘near sea gunnery and annihilation of the enemy on the coastline.’ The intention is to deny the Chinese military control of air and sea control in the waters off Taiwan and to thwart their advance inland by annihilating the Chinese military landing on the coast.

The Taiwanese government’s launch ceremony for its first domestically produced defense submarine (IDS) on September 28 is also part of strengthening asymmetric power. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who attended the launch ceremony, said, “In the past, we thought it was impossible to develop a submarine domestically,” and emphasized, “This submarine will play an important role in strengthening the navy’s asymmetric power.” This submarine, which is 80 meters long and displaces 3,000 tons, was named ‘Haikun (海鯤)’. She said that this name came from the first chapter of ‘Zhuangzi’, Chapter 1 of Xiaoyu, “There is a fish in the dark blue sea of ​​the North, and she names it Kun (鯤).” It is taken from the phrase, “It is impossible to know how many thousand ri the size of Gon is.” Taiwan’s military plans to deploy the Haikun warship by the end of next year.

Taiwan’s military aims to build three Haikun-class submarines in 2025 and four in 2027. This submarine is armed with American Mark (MK) 48 heavy torpedoes. Researcher Xu said that in case of emergency, if this submarine is deployed to the Bashi Strait and Miyako Strait (the area between Japan’s Okinawa Island and Miyako Island, northeastern Taiwan), which are strategic gateways between Taiwan and the Philippines, Chinese aircraft carriers and Type 075 amphibious assault ships will enter and block Taiwan’s eastern waters. It was predicted that it would be possible to block .

Taiwan plans to purchase 400 Harpoon surface-to-ship missiles capable of striking Chinese naval vessels from the United States. Accordingly, the number of surface-to-ship missiles possessed by Taiwan increases to four types. Taiwan’s military has already deployed its own self-developed supersonic anti-ship missiles, the Xiongfeng-2E cruise missile and the Xiongfeng-3 cruise missile. Xiongfeng-2E and Xiongfeng-3, which have a range of 600 km and 400 km respectively, are launched from a tractor-carrying launcher.

The Harpoon missile is somewhat slow, with a maximum range of 280 km and a maximum speed of 864 km per hour (Mach 0.71), but it flies low above sea level, making it very difficult for enemy ships to defend it in the terminal stage. In addition, it can be mounted on a large tactical truck (HEMTT), so it can avoid attacks by the Chinese military, and can strike Chinese naval vessels from a distance, so it is expected to play the role of Taiwan’s version of ‘anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD)’.

Taiwan’s military is also significantly strengthening its air force and surface-to-air missile capabilities to secure air superiority. The Taiwanese Air Force is carrying out the ‘Feng Zhan Project’, a performance improvement project to upgrade all existing F-16A/B to F-16V. Taiwan’s Air Force operates 142 F-16A/Bs, which were introduced in the early 1990s.

Taiwan’s Air Force also plans to acquire 66 of the latest F-16Vs from the United States by 2026. Accordingly, the total number of F-16Vs that Taiwan will operate in the future is expected to be 208. Moreover, on August 23, the US government decided to sell the ‘Infrared Search and Track System (IRST)’ for the F-16V to Taiwan. If Taiwan’s F-16V is equipped with IRST, it can detect the Chinese stealth fighter J-20 and shoot it down with a medium-range air-to-air missile. Jiang Yanting, former deputy commander of Taiwan’s Air Force, said, “If we lose air superiority, it will be difficult to prevent the Chinese military from landing on Taiwan,” and added, “With the import of the U.S. IRST, we can reduce our inferiority to Chinese stealth fighters and strengthen Taiwan’s air defense capabilities.”

Taiwan’s military has built a system that can shoot down Chinese air force fighter planes, bombers, and various missiles with surface-to-air missiles such as the self-developed Tiangong (天弓)-1, 2, and 3 and the American-made Patriot (PAC)-3. Tiangong-3 is a high-altitude anti-aircraft missile developed independently by Taiwan at a cost of NT$30 billion (approximately KRW 1.26 trillion) and is called ‘Taiwan’s version of THAAD.’ Taiwan also plans to introduce 100 extended-range PAC-3 MSEs from the United States by 2026, worth $882 million (about 1.19 trillion won). In early August, Taiwan’s military secretly conducted live-fire training with the United States in the South Pacific island nation of Palau, mobilizing PAC-3 surface-to-air missiles, Stinger missiles, and Avenger short-range air defense missiles. The reason the Taiwanese military conducted missile training in Palau, 2,311 km away, was because of concerns about detection of key data by Chinese military reconnaissance aircraft or intelligence ships.

The weapon that Taiwan’s military is working on recently is unmanned aerial vehicles (drones). According to the ‘Defense White Paper’ released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense this year, starting in 2024, 700 switchblades, a suicide drone, will be supplied from the United States, and Xunfeidan, a Taiwanese version of a switchblade developed by the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), Taiwan’s national defense industry research institute. )-2 300 units are planned to be purchased. The Taiwanese military has also decided to introduce 160 JACKAL, the latest military attack drones from the Turkic budget. This drone has a maximum payload of 15 kg, an operational range of 130 km, a cruising speed of 108 km per hour, and a maximum speed of 160 km, and can fly up to 4,000 m. Taiwan’s military is expected to use this drone to block the Chinese military’s landing operation. Recently, Taiwan’s military disclosed to the media that a large attack drone it had developed in June last year was flying along the country’s air defense identification zone. This drone has a flight range of 4,500 km, so it has the ability to enter deep into China’s interior in case of emergency. In particular, Taiwan plans to test its own underwater drone through the Huilong project starting in December. This underwater drone, which is 30m long, 3.6m wide, and 6m high, is aimed at Chinese naval ships that are about to embark on an amphibious landing operation.

Taiwan’s military also developed a secret weapon to counter the Chinese invasion and deployed it in combat. This weapon is a Xiongsheng cruise missile with a maximum range of 1,200 km. Taiwan’s military first revealed the test launch of this missile at the southern Pingtung Jupeng base on August 16. In case of emergency, this missile can attack not only major Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, but also the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest dam in Hubei Province. Taiwan’s military also developed and fielded the Qingsheng cruise missile, which has a maximum range of 2,000 km and is capable of striking the Chinese capital, Beijing. Taiwan’s military has recently established at least three units that operate these missiles. The Taiwanese military is believed to have prepared an emergency plan to attack major Chinese cities as well as the Three Gorges Dam if the Chinese military invades.

What is noteworthy is that Taiwan will conduct battalion training of 800 people in the U.S. mainland together with the U.S. military until 2025. The purpose of the Taiwanese military’s training is to acquire the combat skills of the U.S. military and strengthen its ability to fight the Chinese military’s landing operations on its own. Taiwan’s military plans to receive Link 22 of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) from the United States to strengthen communication with the U.S. military. NATO’s Link 22 is a digital communication network that shares and disseminates target information detected at sea, underwater, and in the air by surface ships, submarines, and aircraft in real time. Taiwan is making every effort to strengthen its asymmetric power through full support from the United States and the development of its own weapons.

Jang-Hoon Lee, international affairs analyst [email protected]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.