America let go of the hilt of the sword before taking it out of the sheath… Shaky Middle East hegemony

Due to hesitation to attack despite having the strongest military power, the US-led ‘Guardian of Prosperity’ operation collapsed after three days.

Although it is lagging behind the so-called ‘state leaders’, history is a very important study. Regardless of time and place, humans are animals that gain motivation from desire. Desire is endless, but resources are finite. This is because history is full of conflict. As technology and civilization developed, only the form of conflict changed slightly. History has been written with repeated conflicts, big and small.

Regardless of time and place, humans have thought a lot about how to prepare for conflict and how to win. In the East, it was said, “Even if the world is peaceful, if war is forgotten, it will inevitably be in danger (天下雖安 忘戰必危),” and in the West, “If you want peace, prepare for war (Si vis pacem, para bellum).” In modern political science, preventing conflict through preparation is called ‘deterrence.’

The core of deterrence is the powerful force that prevents the enemy from daring to think of provocation. This can be completed only when there are two things: a well-trained military, hardware such as a powerful weapon system, and software that can properly use military power. The Song Dynasty, which had an ‘army of 1.4 million’ but was trampled by ‘60,000 barbarians’, and the UK and France, which suffered the tragedy of World War II against the Nazi German army, which was not sound due to the Treaty of Versailles, are lessons learned that peace cannot be maintained through force alone. throws a

The United States has reigned as the world’s police state and hegemony, repeatedly demonstrating its overwhelming military power and active will to use it. The United States spends more on its military than the combined defense spending of the countries ranked 2nd to 11th. It has the strongest military with 11 super-large aircraft carriers and over 300 stealth fighters. After the Cold War, it was a textbook hegemony in human history that showed what peace through strength was through its military. But now America seems to have lost its original intention.

When President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the world was excited, saying, “America is back.” There were many predictions that the US alliance policy ruined by the former Donald Trump administration would be restored and that US superiority in the competition for hegemony between the US and China would be further strengthened through cooperation with allies. The rosy scenario that world peace will naturally be maintained once the Western world stabilizes has covered mainstream academia and the media. Clearly, by January 2021, the United States has the hardware to do so.

The problem is that the software called the Biden administration has no will to use the hardware. Immediately after taking office, the Biden administration began the process of completely discarding the ‘Nuclear Posture Review Report’ prepared by the Trump administration. The previous administration developed low-yield nuclear weapons and changed the nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear weapons to be used when tactically necessary in each theater, but the Biden administration returned to the principle of non-use of nuclear weapons first. This means that if the other side does not use nuclear weapons, the United States will not use nuclear weapons first.

On November 23, 2023, a poster hung on a street in Tel Aviv, Israel, with photos of hostages kidnapped by Hamas and a message calling for the hostages’ release. [뉴시스]

Previously established plans to develop new nuclear weapons were delayed, scaled back, or even scrapped. This is the nuclear power field, where modernization has been delayed for nearly 30 years and has been pointed out as creating a decades-long technological gap with Russia. The so-called ‘nuclear three-axis system modernization’, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers, has all been delayed. The Ground-Based Strategic Deterrence (GBSD) program, which replaces the old ICBM ‘Minuteman 3’, which has been deployed for more than half a century, is also being repeatedly postponed. The project to develop cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads to be launched from submarines and other naval combat ships was canceled. It is almost certain that SLBM will use existing power until the 2040s due to the delay in the project to replace the Trident II missile deployed in 1990. This is because the Biden administration has been strongly influenced by the so-called ‘nuclear-free world plan’ that has been passed down from the Obama administration.

At the same time, Russia announced the suspension of implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and poured out a large number of new nuclear weapons, the so-called six major strategic weapons. China is also explosively increasing its nuclear weapons and means of delivering them, and the Biden administration appears to have little intention of responding.

The Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis occurred because the United States’ global strategic deterrence ability, including nuclear weapons, was greatly weakened. If the United States had shown a strong will to respond to its disregard for the UN Charter and international legal system, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine. What would have happened if the United States had not lifted sanctions against Iran and lifted the designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization? Furthermore, the Israel-Hamas war would not have occurred if a power vacuum had not been created such as the withdrawal of aircraft carriers and amphibious ships from the Middle East. The recent US-led ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG)’ ending in a disaster is a result of allies’ distrust of the US’s will to deter.

OPG began when Yemen’s Houthi rebels threatened the Red Sea, where 30% of the world’s container traffic flows, under the pretext of Israel’s attack on the Gaza Strip. The Houthis launched more than 100 missile and drone attacks on the Red Sea, and several civilian ships were hit. As global shipping companies suspended operations on the Red Sea route, an unprecedented situation occurred in which the shipping route connecting Europe and Asia was blocked. Because it was a serious issue that involved the interests of America’s allies and friends, the theory of the role of the United States as a global leader emerged.

On October 12, 2023, the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan entered port at the Busan Operation Base of the Naval Operations Command in Nam-gu, Busan. This aircraft carrier is equipped with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft that support them. [뉴스1]

According to a report by the American New York Times, the dominant opinion in the United States, especially in the military, was that “since we cannot block all arrows, we should attack the archers, not the arrows.” In fact, the U.S. military deployed a huge amount of military power near Yemen to destroy the Houthi rebels’ ability to launch missiles and drones. It was the largest since the Gulf War and Iraq War.

The United States forward-deployed the Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier in the southern waters of Yemen and the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier off the coast of Israel. As the United States prepared for military action, its allies also dispatched warships, and as of mid-December 2023, two super-large aircraft carriers, one amphibious assault ship, and one cruise missile submarine equipped with 154 Tomahawk missiles were deployed in the region. . Centered around these ships were 14 Aegis or Aegis-class medium and large air defense combat ships, 7 medium-sized combat ships, 3 large ammunition supply ships, and 1 very large Expeditionary Forward Base (ESB). This is truly incredible power.

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter. [동아DB]

If this force launches an air strike on Yemen, not only hundreds of cruise missiles but also dozens of fighter planes launched from aircraft carriers and forward bases in the Middle East can immediately devastate military facilities throughout Yemen. The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter aircraft mounted on a U.S. aircraft carrier and the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft that support them have sufficient capabilities to penetrate Yemen’s air defense network and devastate the capital Sanaa, a key Houthi stronghold. In fact, on November 30, 2023, Israel mobilized several fighter jets and successfully carried out an airstrike operation that devastated the Houthi missile base outside Sanaa, proving that suppressing the Houthi missile base with air power is not that difficult.

However, America let go of the hilt before removing the sword from the sheath. This is because the White House opposed the military’s argument that an attack was the best, expressing concern that “directly attacking the Houthis could lead to an escalation of the war.” The White House hesitated to launch an active counterattack even when U.S. military bases were attacked more than 100 times in Iraq and Syria, leaving one U.S. soldier dead and dozens injured. As the United States, the leader of the multinational force, showed a passive attitude, allies who had joined forces to suppress the Houthis and protect the Red Sea maritime transportation route also began to leave.

On December 19, 2023, when preparations for military operations against the Houthis were in full swing, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin convened a video conference in Qatar attended by ministers and deputy ministers from 43 countries and announced the OPG plan. In the first announcement, it was announced that 10 countries, including the United States, would participate, and in the second announcement, about 20 countries were announced, but this collapsed after three days. Spain, France, and Italy declared their withdrawal from participation in the multinational force. In particular, Spain protested that the United States unilaterally added Spain’s name to the list of participating countries without consulting them. In the end, the OPG, which was supposed to have more than 20 countries join forces to defend the Red Sea maritime traffic route from the Houthi threat, was reduced to a form in which combat ships dispatched by each country to the Middle East individually escorted civilian ships. Operation Guardian of Prosperity ended in disaster.

The Houthi rebels and the Iran behind them have become more and more aggressive, threatening the United States and European countries by saying they will block not only the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb but also the Strait of Gibraltar beyond the Mediterranean Sea. If the Mediterranean sea route following the Red Sea is threatened, the trade route connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Asia will be shaken. This is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy, which is in recovery. The Biden administration has once again proven that having military power that overwhelms the enemy is useless if there is no will to actively use it.

The problem is ‘timing’. 2024 is a very important year with the US presidential election. The so-called ‘rogue state network’, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, is joining forces and strengthening provocations against the international community. If the variables of the presidential election and the resulting political chaos intensify in the United States, we do not know when and where a third war, following Ukraine and the Middle East, will break out. A turbulent period could unfold that is incomparable to the past two years, which were very chaotic due to various wars. Will Korea be truly prepared for 2024?

〈This article
Weekly Donga

It was published in issue 1421〉

Shin In-gyun, CEO of Independent Defense Network

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.