What to watch in the New Hampshire primary

New Hampshire voters go to the polls Tuesday for the first presidential primary of the 2024 nominating cycle, in a state known for throwing curved balls to the overwhelming favorites.

The retirement of the governor of Florida, Ron De Santisof Sunday’s Republican race narrowed what had been a crowded field of candidates to two: former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.

The national Democratic Party, promoted by the president Joe BidenHe would have liked New Hampshire Democrats to break tradition and move the primary to the end of February.

New Hampshire refused, leaving the president’s supporters to mount a campaign to support the absent Biden against the representative. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, self-help author Marianne Williams and 19 other Democrats whose names are on the ballot.

After Trump defeated his opponents in the Iowa caucuses last Monday, here’s what to watch on Tuesday:

Can Nikki Haley surprise?

After the poll surge in early January, Haley seemed to be closing in on Trump in New Hampshire, and when the former New Jersey governor Chris Christie abandoned on January 10, it appeared he had a brief chance to consolidate the anti-Trump vote among Republicans, independents and about 4,000 Democrats who had re-registered as independent behind her.

Polls in recent days in New Hampshire indicate that consolidation was not enough to win.

If anything, Trump’s totals went up.

But New Hampshire has already surprised meteorologists.

The senator John McCain defeated the great establishment favorite, George W. Bushin 2000.

Hillary Clinton prevailed over a hopeful Barack Obama in 2008.

The viability of Haley’s candidacy could hinge on an upset victory.

The next big event will be held in his home state of South Carolina on February 24.

Trump has a strong lead in the polls, but a victory in New Hampshire could remind South Carolina Republicans why they voted for her twice for governor.

A defeat could be yours Waterloo.

Will Donald Trump be able to put an end to this?

Since the Iowa caucuses became famous in 1972, only six candidates have won both the caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in a close race.

Of those six, only Edmund Muskie, a Democratic senator from Maine, did not win his party’s nomination, and that was 52 years ago.

Trump’s hold on his party’s base may be more dominant than that of any candidate who has won the two states before, and no presidential candidate in American history has had the same incentives to clinch the nomination as early as possible.

The former president, who faces 91 felony charges In four criminal casess, he wants to install ultra-loyal delegates at the Republican National Convention long before any of these cases go to trial and, certainly, before a possible conviction could renew doubts about his suitability for the Republican nomination.

Shortly before the Iowa caucuses, Christie withdrew in the hope that a stronger alternative to Trump might emerge.

But it seemed too late.

Trump’s landslide victory in that state knocked several candidates out of the race: Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson and, finally, DeSantis, who had been hailed from the start by Republicans as the strongest alternative to Trump in the race.

A convincing Trump victory in New Hampshire, where independents have gained access to the Republican ticket, would leave Haley limping, with few states offering as attractive prospects as those of the Granite State.

The month-long race in South Carolina’s primary, with few resources and a party clearly aligned with Trump, could also force her to withdraw from the race.

Will New Hampshire voters show up?

Faced with subzero temperatures and gale-force winds, Iowa’s Republican voters ignored last Monday’s caucuses; 110,298 showed up, compared to the 186,874 who voted in 2016, the last contested caucuses.

Snow showers are expected in New Hampshire, but temperatures could reach 4.5 degrees.

State officials expect New Hampshire voters to set record turnout.

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan predicted turnout in the Republican primary will be 322,000 voters, up from 2016’s record of 287,652.

That would mean a turnout of more than 60% of total eligible Republican and independent voters, compared to the 18% of eligible Republicans who turned out in Iowa.

For those who win, it could provide a strong turnout greater legitimacy face the long primary season.

But Trump has been raising doubts for days about the strength of Haley’s coalition, which he says will be dominated by independents and Democrats.

And you, Ron?

When Christie dropped out of the presidential race, he said his decision was motivated by a desire not to do anything that would help Trump return to the White House.

But he did not support Haley and, with a hot microphone, told the world:

“They’ll smoke it,” not doing it any favors.

That move had to be “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” said John Sununu, a former Republican senator from New Hampshire.

It would turn the primaries into a two-horse race between the embattled former president and “someone who has balanced budgets, who has been a strong conservative leader, and who, at the same time, hasn’t left chaos everywhere he’s gone.”

There’s no doubt that many Christie voters have switched to Haley, though perhaps not enough to put her over the top.

But he didn’t campaign for her.

Then, two days before the primaries, another shoe dropped, namely another candidate, DeSantis.

In his case, he supported Trump and, in a sign of contempt for Haley, called her the candidate of old guard of defeated republican corporatism.

Poll tracking by Suffolk University in New Hampshire before DeSantis dropped out of the race did not show many DeSantis voters available to either candidate; she had about 6% of the vote.

But his parting shot at Haley may have sent those few to Trump.

Monday’s poll gave the former president a lead of between 57% and 38%.

Whether DeSantis’ support will help Trump leave her behind will be seen on Tuesday.

Are there Democratic primaries?

Biden began his reelection campaign determined to reduce the power of Iowa and New Hampshire in favor of states like South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan, with greater racial, ethnic and economic diversity, which he considered more representative of the Democratic Party .

Iowa Democrats agreed by changing their process.

Not so the New Hampshire Democrats.

Biden stood his ground.

So when Democrats go to the polling stations for the primaries, 21 Democrats will be on the ballot, but the president will not.

A group of veteran New Hampshire Democrats are organizing a get-together campaign for Biden, angry at New Hampshire’s treatment but determined not to present a remote alternative, like Phillips or Williamson.

If he is successful, rumors of an alternative candidate to the current 81-year-old candidate could be put to rest, at least for a while.

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