The race for the White House: Joe Biden won in Michigan but suffered an unprecedented protest vote for his policies in the war between Israel and Hamas

The race for the White House continues at full speed and Tuesday’s result of the Michigan primaries, a fundamental state for every election in the United States, revealed a fact that has alerted Joe Biden’s campaign: the Democratic president won the internal elections, but suffered a strong protest vote for his policy in the conflict between Israel and Hamas this could complicate his re-election.

Democrats and Republicans voted in Michigan to choose their candidates for the Nov. 5 general election. There was little suspense about the results for both parties given that Biden had practically no rivals in the Democratic nomination and Donald Trump also won resoundingly.

But a movement that was born in this state and that could expand has raised concerns in the Democratic campaign: tens of thousands of voters of that party have chosen to a vote called “no compromise” as part of a campaign launched to protest Biden’s support for Israel in the war on Gaza.

Michigan is a very important state in the American electoral process. It is one of the so-called “swing states”that is, they are neither fully liberal nor conservative and may vote for one party or another in a swinging manner, depending on the election.

Located in the “Rust Belt”, the industrial “rust belt” of the northern United States, it measures the electoral temperature and was fundamental, for example, in ensuring that Trump won the White House in 2016 (with just 11,000 votes) and also for Biden’s victory in 2020. There the Democrat then achieved a victory with over 150,000 votes.

As civilian deaths rise in the war between Israel and Hamas, Muslim and Arab-American support for Biden erodeswho voted Democratic in Michigan in 2020. This state has the largest percentage of residents who identify with Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, approximately 310,000.

The “Listen to Michigan” movement was launched just a few weeks ago and aimed to rally around 10,000 “uncommitted” voters to convey a “powerful and unambiguous message” that funding and supporting war is “at odds with the values ​​of the Democratic Party ”. Party.” “.

Although this protest vote never threatened Biden as his path to the nomination was assured, “no commitment” received nearly 101,000 votes, 13% of the electorate, much more than they themselves predicted. Biden is losing – albeit slightly – in the polls to Trump for the general election and cannot afford a defeat in November in a key state like Michigan.

It doesn’t excite

It must be remembered that the American system provides that if a candidate wins a state, even by one vote, he gets all the electoral votes in the district and in a close election that can be crucial. In 2000, for example, George W. Bush was president because, although he lost the popular vote, an extraordinary count in Florida (another “swing state at the time”) gave him the winner by just hundreds of votes and so all of Florida’s electoral votes went to the Republicans.

“Our movement won tonight and far exceeded our expectations,” said Layla Elabed, campaign director for Listen to Michigan and sister of Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American in Congress. “Tens of thousands of Michigan Democrats, many of them who voted for Biden in 2020, are not committed to his re-election because of the war in Gaza.”

And he added: “We don’t want a Trump presidency, but Biden put Netanyahu (the Israeli prime minister) above American democracy. “We cannot afford to pay the bill for ignoring Palestinian lives.”

It is not surprising that the party of the “uncommitted” won in the districts where the majority of Arabs or Muslims live. Perhaps most troubling to Biden was her performance in Ann Arbor, a college town, where most of the University of Michigan students and faculty live. where the “non-committed” obtained 19%. In East Lansing, home of Michigan State University, the “uncommitted” got 15% of the vote.

While no other battleground states have Arab-American communities the size of Michigan, all have college towns where young, progressive voters are angry about American support for Israel.

Donald Green, professor of political science at Columbia University, said this Clarion that “since Biden is running essentially unopposed, voting without commitment in itself has no electoral consequences, but a victory that was not overwhelming it fuels the narrative that he should step aside let a younger candidate lead the list.”

“In Michigan, where there are numerous Arab-American communities, the primaries are also an opportunity for a visible protest against Biden’s pro-Israel position. This also has no immediate political consequences, but it fuels the narrative that Biden will fail to inspire enthusiasm among the Democratic base in the November elections“He added.

Concern in the United States over the war in Gaza has grown because of the high number of civilians killed in Israel’s retaliatory campaign, which now stands at nearly 30,000, according to the health ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza. According to recent Quinnipiac and Harvard-Harris polls, 62% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the conflict

The Republicans also had their intern and everything went without surprises: Trump won decisively (68% of the vote) and his only remaining primary rival, his former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, got 26.6%. And another 3% voted blank. In total, more than 300,000 Republican votes that can be interpreted as a rejection of Trump. That’s why Haley has so far refused to withdraw from the race.