In early 2022, nine countries with the bomb (Russia, United States, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) have 12,705 nuclear warheads, 375 fewer than at the beginning of 2021, according to estimates by the International Institute for Stockholm Peace Research ( SIPRI).

Since its full record in 1986 (over 70,000 heads), this total has been divided by more than five with a steady decrease in the massive Russian and American arsenals generated during the Cold War. Moscow and Washington actually control 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenal between them.

But this era of disarmament will surely end and the risk of nuclear escalation is at an all-time high post-Cold War, according to a report by the Swedish research center.

” We will soon come to a point where, for the first time since the end of the cold war, the number of nuclear weapons in the world may begin to rise, which is a truly dangerous phenomenon. “

After the collapse on the side observed last year, the global arsenal should start to grow again in the next decadeaccording to SIPRI.

The shadow of Russia

The war in Ukraine has resulted in some explicit references by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the use of atomic weapons and some countries, such as China and the United Kingdom, are officially or unofficially undertaking modernization or development plans. . institution.

It will be very difficult to make progress on disarmament in the coming years because of this war and the way Putin talks about his nuclear weapons.according to Mr. Korda.

For him, these distressing statements caused many of the other nuclear armed powers to rethink their own atomic strategies.

Despite the entry into force of the treaty banning nuclear weapons in early 2021 after its ratification by more than 50 countries and the five-year extension of the Russian-American Start treaty, the context has deteriorated in the past. years, according to SIPRIagainst a backdrop of concern over Iran’s nuclear program and the development of hypersonic missiles that are more difficult to intercept.

The decrease in the total number of weapons is only due to the dismantling of Russia and America’s nuclear warheads. removed from service several years ago. The number of weapons considered operational remains quite stable.

Despite diplomatic statements, all nuclear-armed states are increasing or modernizing their arsenal and most are adopting their nuclear rhetoric and the role of atomic weapons in their military strategiesaccording to SIPRI.

” In China, a major increase in the nuclear arsenal is underway, with satellite images indicating the construction of more than 300 new missile silos. “

According to the Pentagon, Beijing could have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027.

The United Kingdom announced last year to raise the ceiling of its nuclear arsenal and decided not to disclose the number of its operational weapons.

France has launched a new nuclear submarine program in 2021, and India, Pakistan and Israel also seem to be developing their arsenal, according to the report. SIPRI.