What will happen now in Sri Lanka? Five keys to a crisis that has alerted the world

The Parliament of Sri Lanka on Saturday presented the process for the selection of the next president, who will govern ad interim after the escape and resignation of the former head of state Gotabaya Rajapaksain the midst of a social revolt.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn in as interim president to replace Gotabaya Rajapaksa, but the country is still far from overcoming its economic and political crisis.

Here are some keys to understanding what could happen in the coming weeks on this island in the Indian Ocean, south of India, with 22 million inhabitants.

1- The crisis

Under Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka suffered the worst economic crisis since independence and went into default. Since the end of 2021, the country has not been able to finance even its most essential imports.

This crisis was triggered by the covid-19 pandemic, which devastated the island’s tourism sector, major foreign currency earner, but was aggravated by a series of inadequate political decisions.

Even the president’s staunchest allies have turned away from him as the crisis deepens. scarcity of food, electricity, fuel and medicine.

Popular discontent erupted on 9 July when hundreds of protesters stormed the residence of Rajapaksa, who fled to a sea base before leaving the country.

2- Inflation and repression

Gotabaya Rajapaksa was nicknamed the “Terminator” for suppressing the Tamil rebellion when he was Defense Minister under his older brother Mahinda Rajapaksa from 2005 to 2015.

He was appreciated by the Buddhist majority, but hated by the Tamil and Muslim minorities.

Population united against Rajapaksa when inflation exceeded 50% and four out of five people were forced to skip meals due to food shortages.

3- Succession

The Constitution of Sri Lanka provides that the Prime Minister will serve as interim president until that a new head of state be appointed within one month.

Wickremesinghe, 73, has led the country since Rajapaksa formally resigned on July 14, two years and seven months after his five-year term.

Parliament is now expected to meet next Wednesday to appoint a new president to complete the mandate initiated by Rajapaksa.

4- The candidates

Interim President Ranil Wickremesinghe, a pro-Western who has served as prime minister six times, is the overwhelming favorite. He has the support of the SLPP, Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s party, which enjoys a relative majority in parliament.

However, nothing is certain, since the vote of the deputies is secret. In the past, some have been accused of selling their votes.

Another strong candidate is former media minister Dullas Alahapperuma, 63, an SLPP dissident.

The main opposition leader, Sajith Premadasa, 55, also announced his candidacy on Friday night.

Former army chief Sarath Fonseka, 71, declared an enemy of the Rajapaksa familyyou might as well try your luck.

5- Negotiations with the IMF

All political parties in Sri Lanka support the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a rescue package.

The country, whose economy has completely sunk, defaulted on its $ 51 billion foreign debt in mid-April.

On Thursday, the IMF said it hoped the crisis would be resolved quickly so that negotiations, interrupted by the uprising, could be resumed.

But adopting a bailout plan risks being complicated by divisions in Parliament, where no party has a clear majority.

And the country no longer has the resources to hold new parliamentary elections in the short term.

Source: AFP

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