Northern Ireland: for the first time a Catholic woman will rule the province, but faces heavy obstacles

A day that will go down in history in Britain’s most hostile and violent provinces. Sinn Fein, the Catholic party and former military branch of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) has won the religious war. Y a catholic will be prime minister of the Legislative Assembly, after local elections in Britain and after a slow count.

Michelle O’Neil sit in the seat. As long as the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is supported by 56 per cent of voters, is not set aside this Tuesday by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Legislative Assembly cannot take over. Another of the dangerous legacies of Brexit.

The Northern Ireland Protocol manages commercial relations between Europe and Great Britain and the Good Friday Agreement, which keeps peace in the province. And demands your respect. The US government reminded London on Monday. Washington is one of the architects of peace in the province.

Previously the largest party in the Stormont Assembly, the Protestant DUP, resigned as prime minister in February in protest of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Clear success

Sinn Fein won 27 seats in the Assembly, the Democratic Protestants (DUP), founded by fundamentalist Protestant pastor Ian Paisley, won 25 seats. The Alliance won 17 and the Protestant Unionists 9. The SDLP Catholic Nationalist Social Democrats won 18. Vote on 62.8 percent of the population.

The Irish Nationalist Party won the largest number of seats and the position of Prime Minister of its legislative assembly. The first minister of the Legislative Assembly was O Neil. Teenage Single Mom, with a parent IRA; along with an IRA sibling, who died fighting the SAS ambush in 1991, and along with an IRA cousin, were killed. But he is not a guerrilla.

This is the first time an Irish Catholic nationalist party has appeared as the largest in the Legislative Assembly of Stormont and deposed the Protestant unionists, most of whom are now in the formerly troubled province.

This is one of the demographic and political history extraordinary in a province divided between Protestants and Catholics during 32 years of civil war, culminating in the Good Friday Peace Agreement.

But this victory raises tensions over Brexit and over Northern Ireland’s famous protocol, which regulates trade between Europe and Great Britain. Without changing that protocol, that is Europe does not want to touch and that Great Britain wants to change or unilaterally removethere will be no legislative assembly in Belfast and that will further increase tension.

The message from the voters in these elections is very clear: they they don’t want hard boundaries between Ireland and Northern Ireland. And if not they will call in 5 years a referendum for unite both ireland and that was the beginning of the separation of the United Kingdom. Then came Scotland and most likely Wales. The kingdom would be reduced to England. They are the unspeakable consequences of Brexit.

For the first time in a century, Sinn Fein nationalists became the leading political force in Northern Ireland. A success was predicted, but a kind of political earthquake for unionists.

Represented by O’Neill the new generation of republican activists and pledged to offer “inclusive leadership, that celebrates diversity, that guarantees the rights and equality of those who have been excluded, discriminated against or ignored in the past. Another great winner was the centrist party Alianza -“none”, not nationalist or unionist – with 17 seats.

The Northern Ireland Protocol

According to the rules of the institution, Michelle O’Neill should be named Prime Minister, while the DUP will get the position of Deputy Prime Minister, endowed with more or less prerogatives.

The terms of the 1998 peace agreements state that the executive branch governed by shared power. But last February, DUP Prime Minister Paul Givan resigned because of his camp’s dissatisfaction with the “protocol”, which governs customs arrangements after Brexit.

The party insisted it would not return to the executive table until they throw it away. That is why there is a great risk that the province will sink into political paralysis.

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson said he “wants a government” as long as it is “based on a solid foundation.” He reiterated that the protocol had been discussed in London and the EU is “weakening the economy” of the province and its “political stability”.

The unionists believe customs controls after Brexit threatening the integrity of the United Kingdom and that Boris Johnson had betrayed them. Therefore, this vote must be followed by a period of busy negotiations. One of the DUP barons, Edwin Poots, estimated it could take “hopefully weeks or months”.

“The unionists are even more angry because they already know they are their divisions and their mistakes, especially around protocol, which allows Sinn Fein to win, rather than a real push from pro-reunification nationalists, ”said Jamie Pow of Queen’s University Belfast.

The United States immediately sent a clear message to the Unionists, calling on Northern Ireland’s leaders to “take the necessary steps to restore a shared government”, And remembering that this is“ one of the main clauses of the Good Friday Agreement ”. This pressure was de facto on London, which Jeffrey Donaldson called for swift action.

The drama of Brexit

Boris Johnson’s threats to override the protocol could re-ignite tensions between London and the EU during the post-Brexit period. Chancellor Liz Truss issued a warning, saying she was “extremely concerned” at the EU’s refusal to change its position on the protocol.

For him, Brussels is breaking the agreement on Good Friday and will be responsible for political instability. London is considering passing a national law on Tuesday that would “repeal” the Northern Ireland-EU Protocol.

Michelle O’Neill did not insist on the issue of the referendum, referring only to necessity a “healthy debate” about the future of Northern Ireland.

But instead of a referendum, the Irish voted for necessity address the rising cost of living and other social problems as a priority. Alianza’s development also reflects the growing dissatisfaction with the political paralysis that has stemmed from the game of traditional parties.

The great boss of Sinn Fein, Mary Lou McDonaldwho could win elections in the Republic of Ireland in 2025, reiterated on Friday that a referendum on reunification “within five years” is possible.

London could allow such a vote if it appears that a majority of the province’s residents want unity. The latest surveys show that at present will be only the third who wants it

The DUP, which is in second place, on the other hand, seems willing to use it veto power under the Good Friday agreement to prevent decentralized government from starting, even until forced an unsatisfactory confrontation with the EU which is unlikely to lead anywhere.

Towards reunification?

Is Northern Ireland heading towards imminent reunification with the Republic? The Good Friday agreement calls for a border vote if it seems likely that a majority of voters will support reunification in Ireland. Polls suggest that support it is still less than 50 percent.

In any case, Sinn Fein doesn’t talk much about reunion these days. It is presented as a modern European socialist partywith a social liberal agenda and committed to progressive economic policies.

Although this result is seismic, Northern Ireland’s immediate problem is the seemingly insurmountable barrier between election results and a functioning government.

DUP threatened to block the formation of an executive, unless you see radical changes, or possibly the complete elimination, of the Irish Protocol agreed with the EU as part of the Brexit deal. That deal led to checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea, which inflamed unionist attitudes.

The ministers promised to redouble efforts to “fix” the protocol. A government minister said “nothing was off the table” during negotiations to address concerns over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Under the power -sharing model in Northern Ireland, the executive must have representatives from both the nationalist party who want Irish unity – Sinn Fein – and the unionists, who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK – the DUP. .

The DUP said it would not engage a deputy government in sharing power with Sinn Fein unless there was progress on the protocol.

Speaking after Sinn Fein’s victory, Dominic Raab, Britain’s deputy prime minister, said the election results made it clear that the settlement of the Northern Ireland Protocol “can’t be postponed.”

He added that stability is “put at risk” by protocol problems. The UK and EU agreed to implement the protocol after Brexit to avoid the introduction of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Sinn Fein will speak with Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney to discuss the election results and the importance of developing a fully functioning executive. soon.

Paris, correspondent

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